#美联储降息预期 The contrast in expectations for this round of rate cuts is interesting. On the surface, the Federal Reserve is still cutting rates, but Powell's plan faces the broadest opposition in nearly eight years—this is a market signal: the path of rate cuts is no longer viable.

The real variable isn't the interest rate itself, but the reconfiguration of power. Trump's team is taking control of the entire monetary system in a way far more thorough than expected, not just changing the chairmanship, but quietly loosening the "moat" of central bank independence. Term premiums, balance sheets, yield curve pricing power—these underlying mechanisms are shifting from the Fed to the Treasury.

From a follow-trade perspective, this means next year's trading environment will show clear differentiation. Traders betting on a "steady rate cut cycle" may need to adjust their strategies, as the pace of rate cuts will be more conservative than expected. Conversely, traders who can capture liquidity shifts and are sensitive to macro power structures will have opportunities.

Looking at micro strategies and Tom Lee's operations makes this clear—when the market is generally bearish, they add to their positions, which isn't just stubbornness but a layout for a longer-term liquidity environment change. The $4 billion ETF outflow isn't panic withdrawal but forced liquidation of basis arbitrage positions, leaving healthier allocations behind.

Recently, I adjusted my follow-trade weights, increasing those traders who are particularly sensitive to US debt duration and fiscal policy, and reducing accounts solely chasing rate cut expectations. During this power transition period, direction is more important than pace—following the wrong person can be very costly.