Analysts Warn of the Start of "Crypto Winter": Bottom Expected at $56 000

The growth in demand for the first cryptocurrency has slowed down, which may indicate a transition to a bear market. These conclusions were reached by CryptoQuant analysts.

According to experts, the bottom will form near the realized price — around $56 000. The decline from the historical maximum in this case will be 55%. An intermediate support level is at $70 000.
Analysts noted that since 2023, the industry has experienced three major waves of activity. Their drivers were the launch of spot ETFs in the USA, the results of the American elections, and the growth of corporate treasuries.

Since October 2025, demand indicators have fallen below trend values. In the opinion of experts, the main volume of purchases in the current cycle has already been realized, which has deprived the price of key support.

Institutional investors have shifted to reducing their positions. In Q4 2025, American spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers, selling 24,000 BTC. This contrasts with active accumulation at the end of 2024.

Addresses with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC also show below-trend dynamics. A similar situation was observed at the end of 2021 before the onset of the "crypto winter."

The derivatives market confirms a decline in risk appetite. Funding rates have fallen to December 2023 lows. The price of the first cryptocurrency has dropped below the 365-day moving average. Historically, this level separates bullish and bearish phases.

CryptoQuant emphasized: Bitcoin's four-year cycles depend on the expansion and contraction of demand, not on halving events.

Opinion: Bitcoin Network "Cooling Down"
The Bitcoin market has entered a bearish phase, according to CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain. Technical indicators and decreased network activity point to a trend reversal.
The expert noted that the 30-day moving average has fallen below the 365-day moving average by 0.52%. The downward trend is also confirmed by the Bull-Bear indicator.

A consistent reduction in active addresses indicates outflows of speculators and a decline in trading interest.

Network slowdown is observed through the 7-day moving average of key metrics:

Number of transactions: decreased from ~460,000 to ~438,000;
Fees: total volume decreased from ~$233 000 to ~$230 000;
High-activity addresses: the indicator shrank from 43,300 to 41,500. Institutions and other large players have shifted into "defense" and accumulation phases.
Comparing current data with 2018 figures, GugaOnChain found identical patterns: decline in transaction activity, low fees, and whale exits.

The difference lies in the size of the user base: 800,000 active participants now versus 600,000 in the previous cycle. This indicates greater network maturity. The expert summarized that such calm often serves as a precursor to a volatility spike.