There is an interesting historical pattern: the strength or weakness of the year-end market often predicts the upcoming market trend.

Looking back at past candlestick charts can reveal clues—1994, 2005, and 2015 all had relatively mediocre performances at the end of the year, followed by a sideways market. Even more painfully, in 2000 and 2008, weak year-end performance directly evolved into deep bear markets afterward, with severe declines. The mild bear market at the beginning of 2016 also followed this logic.

Looking at the present, the wave of tariff panic at the beginning of 2025 is, to some extent, a replay of this script. The market seems to be telling us with historical data: when to be prepared. Either sideways consolidation or low-position positioning, the key is not to be caught off guard by sudden volatility.