#预测市场 Seeing Gensyn, a project that has raised over $50 million and has just launched the Delphi prediction market, reminds me of a common investment trap—many people are easily attracted by high funding backgrounds and new concepts, but they overlook the most basic risk management.

The scale of funding indeed reflects market attention, but it is not an investment signal in itself. Prediction markets sound very sophisticated, but fundamentally they are still trading tools. We need to calmly consider a few questions: Do we truly understand how this product works? Can we withstand the volatility in this emerging field? Is our capital allocation ratio reasonable?

My consistent advice is that new tracks and new projects are worth paying attention to and learning from, but we should be especially cautious when allocating funds. Opportunities that seem highly attractive should only constitute a small part of the overall assets, so we can participate in potential gains while protecting the principal. We need more time to understand the risk characteristics of tools like prediction markets—there's no need to rush.

In the long run, prudent investing always involves finding a balance through restraint—neither missing out on opportunities nor being led by hot trends.