#数字资产市场动态 LIT Valuation Under Pressure: On-Chain Signals Behind Whale Large Short Positions

After reviewing on-chain data and market news recently, I found that the long-short battle on LIT is becoming increasingly intense. Several details are worth pondering:

**Whales Are Moving**
An address (0xdaa…) has deposited $2.6 million in margin on the Hyperliquid platform, currently holding a short position worth $1.256 million with 1x leverage (average price $3.53), and continues to add to the position. The liquidation price is set at $6.98 — this level is very telling. At the current price of $3.47, whales clearly anticipate limited upside and see a higher probability of decline.

**Market Divergence**
The current FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of LIT is about $3.4 billion, but this figure is being tested. On Polymarket, the probability that the FDV remains over $3 billion one day after listing has dropped by 7%, now only 55%. Funds are voting with their feet, beginning to question whether this valuation can be sustained long-term.

**Selling Pressure May Be Coming**
Lighter previously transferred 250 million LIT tokens (a quarter of the total supply), which are expected to be used for airdrops. At the current price, each token is worth about $72. If the airdrop occurs as planned on the 31st, short-term selling pressure may be released — especially combined with whales’ pre-positioned short positions, the on-chain signals are already quite clear.

**My View**
A $3.4 billion FDV seems a bit high before the official launch. Whales daring to act this way before the airdrop indicate they have long studied the tokenomics and market absorption capacity. A resonance of bullish and bearish signals is forming: the probability on Polymarket is decreasing + large on-chain short positions confirm this, and short-term sentiment is weakening. Once the airdrop lands and the "sell the news" effect kicks in, testing below $3 is not unlikely.

On the trading side, don’t rush to chase longs. Wait until after the airdrop to see how the trading volume and turnover behave. If whales’ short positions continue to grow, be cautious of liquidity slippage risks.

Data and logic are always more valuable than emotions. I will keep monitoring this address’s movements and the progress of on-chain token distribution, and will update with new findings anytime.