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87% pricing “no change” isnt confidence - it’s resignation
Inflation hasn’t broken. Financial conditions haven’t eased enough.
Powell has zero incentive to blink early.
What’s interesting is the asymmetry:
everyone waiting for a cut, nobody positioned for disappointment.
If January passes with no move, the real reaction won’t be rates - it’ll be the unwind of all the “early pivot” narratives.
Markets don’t crash when news is bad.
They crack when hope expires quietly.