The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes scheduled for December 9-10 will be released on December 30, and these minutes can reveal a lot. The market has been waiting in recent days because the minutes directly disclose how committee members view future interest rates.

The key point is: if the minutes show that members are concerned about a rebound in inflation, expectations for rate cuts will need to be lowered. This is bearish for cryptocurrencies. Why? Under high interest rates, money flows into risk-free assets like government bonds, and few will venture into high-risk assets like crypto. Conversely, if the minutes hint that inflation has stabilized and rate cuts are still on the table, the market will likely feel more optimistic.

The current situation is a bit complex. U.S. inflation is indeed cooling down, which is good news. But core inflation remains sticky, and the employment market hasn't loosened much. The Fed is stuck—if they cut too quickly, inflation might rebound; if they don't cut, the economy could be dragged down. A dilemma indeed.

For holders, short-term volatility will be driven by the content of the minutes, which is unavoidable. But in the longer term, what truly drives Bitcoin are its scarcity and institutional interest—these are the fundamentals.

Operationally, it is recommended to lighten your positions before the minutes are released to avoid being squeezed during the highest uncertainty. If the minutes lean dovish, consider adding positions after the market reacts. Conversely, don’t be too pessimistic if the minutes are hawkish and cause a sharp drop— for those optimistic about the medium to long term, this could be a good entry point.