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Having been involved in the crypto market for many years, I increasingly believe in one principle: any genuine trend reversal cannot be hidden. They will inevitably leave clues in technical indicators. The change in the Bollinger Bands' opening is the best "microscope" I have in my toolkit.
There are many tutorials online claiming that when the opening widens, a trend is coming; when it narrows, a consolidation is underway. But that's just scratching the surface. The real lesson lies in the story behind Bollinger Bands—the volatility story—which can help us identify market turning points ahead of time.
**Volatility is the key**
The middle line of Bollinger Bands is a moving average, with the upper and lower bands calculated based on standard deviations. In traditional finance, the probability that prices fall within two standard deviations is 95.4%. But in the crypto market? It's only about 85%. This isn't a small numerical difference; it reflects a fundamental difference—the volatility in crypto markets is 3 to 5 times higher than in traditional markets.
Because of this extreme volatility, Bollinger Bands have a unique role here. When the channel's opening expands to its peak, what seems like a crazy trend has actually reached the end of its strength. Smart money is quietly retreating at this moment.
**I've tested all three turning point signals**
The first is called "Trend Exhaustion." When prices race along the upper or lower band, with the Bollinger Bands' opening twice as wide as usual, then suddenly—the upper band folds downward, and the lower band folds upward. At this moment, the alarm should ring. True insiders start adjusting their positions right here.