2025-12-30 15:21:18

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, the bottoming features are quite obvious. The amplitude continues to contract, and the demand for a trend reversal is becoming increasingly strong, indicating that a volatility breakout is imminent. Looking at the chart, the oscillating bottom is gradually rising, and the probability of an upward breakout is indeed not small.

The next key levels are clear. If the price can break through $92,500, it will break the previous downtrend, with an initial target of $95,000. Conversely, if it cannot hold above $84,000, it will need to continue testing lower, possibly bottoming around $75,000 near the 80,000 level.

The most psychologically testing scenario is this kind of movement—correct in the overall direction, but before the rise, a sharp decline comes first. This can trigger stop-losses and shake investor confidence, causing many to fall into self-doubt and ultimately miss out on this wave of market opportunity. We've seen similar plays many times in the market.

Considering different scenarios:

Baseline scenario (probability 55-60%): Price fluctuates steadily between $88,000 and $95,000, with slight upward potential, making this the most likely outcome.

Optimistic scenario (probability 25-30%): Liquidity surges trigger a rebound, breaking through the $100,000 mark and even rushing toward $110,000. This situation usually results from rising inflation expectations or large capital inflows.

Pessimistic scenario (probability 15-20%): Support levels are broken, and the downtrend further accelerates, reaching the $78,000-$82,000 range. The rebound may be delayed until February, and in extreme cases, the bottom could be around $75,000 or lower.

Ultimately, the probability of a major market move in the first half of next year remains relatively high—it's just a matter of time. Although the risk of further decline always exists, the overall outlook favors a oscillating upward trend. This window warrants close attention.

BTC1.65%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

19 Likes

Reward
19
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BtcDailyResearcher

· 7h ago

It's the same bottom-building theory again, I've seen it too many times. Only believe it when it breaks 92,500. If 84,000 doesn't hold, I'll go all-in short. Don't blame me then. Really, the worst thing is being trapped halfway up the mountain, watching Bitcoin rise while I regret. Anyway, the highest probability is 88-95 consolidation, so just wait. I'm not in a hurry anyway.

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingerGas

· 10h ago

Basically, it's a typical symmetrical triangle, just waiting for a trend reversal game. I've seen too many instances of stop-loss after a sharp decline; the biggest trading cost is actually at the psychological level. If the range of 88,000-95,000 can hold steady, it's considered a win of half; the key is to look at on-chain evidence from large funds. Extreme case of 75,000? That would really be a liquidity crisis, but the probability isn't that high. Instead of obsessing over the direction, it's better to study the distribution of chips near the support level.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrybaby

· 10h ago

Another set of "bottoming theory," each time claiming that the highest probability is in the middle range. Isn't that just playing it safe? Waiting to be proven wrong is definitely certain.

View OriginalReply0

ApeWithAPlan

· 10h ago

Another wave of bottoming talk, I’m already tired of this routine, but to be honest, 92,500 is indeed a point of interest. I’ll only believe it if it can really break through. --- The psychological aspect is correct; it’s always like this—first crashing then rising. Without some bullets in hand, it’s impossible to withstand. --- The baseline scenario of 55-60 sounds stable, but I’m just worried that the pessimistic scenario of 15-20 might suddenly come, and then I’ll have to follow the trend and cut losses again. --- The number 100,000 is very tempting, but on the other hand, the downside space is quite large. Let’s wait and see if there are clear breakout signals before making a move. --- Everyone is talking about a big market in the first half of next year, but who can accurately grasp the rhythm is the real skill. --- If the 84,000 line cannot be held, I think it’s likely to test lower again. Don’t expect a rebound to be so quick. --- The most frightening thing is this strange calm with shrinking amplitude, often a sign of an impending storm.

View OriginalReply0

PerpetualLonger

· 10h ago

Hold tight, don't move. If 92,500 breaks, we've won big. Now is the time to test our faith.

View OriginalReply0

SneakyFlashloan

· 11h ago

It's the same old story, sharp drop followed by sharp rise. I bet five bucks I'll get crushed again and hit the bottom. Here comes another psychological test. Last time I said this, the price directly hit the 8X range. 55% probability is just another way of saying "I don't know," haha. Wait, can it really break 92,500 this time? Why am I so skeptical? People who cut their losses are now crying. Should have just HODL'd to the end. That optimistic scenario of $100,000—just listen and don't take it seriously. If you ask me, every year in the first half of the year, you'll hear about a big market move.

View OriginalReply0

SigmaValidator

· 11h ago

It's the familiar pattern again—first a sharp drop, then a rebound? It's always this way, tormenting us. This time, you really need to brace yourself mentally; don't get shaken out. Only when 92,500 is broken does it count; anything said now is premature.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainSniper

· 11h ago

It's the same story again, raising the bottom and increasing the probability... I've heard it so many times. Last time they said that, why did it drop back to 75,000 again? Can't withstand the psychological test. To be blunt, technical analysis is useless no matter how accurate it is. I'll wait until it breaks 92,500 before considering again. I've seen this routine too many times before.

View OriginalReply0