Gold surpassing $4,000 is no coincidence - Global market conditions 2025-2026 point to where

Four Unavoidable Main Drivers

If you’re wondering why gold surged past the $4,000 per ounce mark in late 2025, here is the answer. It’s not just about serious buying interest, but a fundamental shift in the global financial system.

Trade conflicts or full-scale trade wars between the US and China have brought unprecedented uncertainty. When President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods starting November 2025, investors worldwide began seeking safe-haven assets, with gold being the first choice.

Changing Fed policies is another reason. The US Federal Reserve started a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, reducing rates by 0.25%, with further cuts expected in October and December. The result is a weakening dollar, making gold (which is traded in dollars) more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Central bank gold accumulation has exceeded 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years. This movement stems from de-dollarization or risk diversification away from the US dollar, especially after the Russian central bank asset freeze incident. Currently, global gold reserves are around 36,699 tons, the highest in decades.

BRICS countries are considering launching a gold-backed digital currency for international trade among member nations. This is a direct challenge to the dollar. One opinion from Trump states he would impose a 100% tariff on BRICS if they proceed with this plan.

Market Conditions in Thailand: Gold Bars Reach 62,000 Baht

While the global market talks about $4,000, domestically, 96.5% gold bars have already surpassed the target of 55,000 Baht, reaching 62,000 Baht. Many experts have had to revise their forecasts upward due to the market’s rapid pace.

If Gold Rises an Additional $900 - Institutions See $4,900

It’s not just a single character that’s looking heavy.

Goldman Sachs, with strategist Lina Thomas, raised the year-end 2026 target to $4,900 per ounce (up from the previous $4,300), citing strong demand from central banks and continuous inflows into gold ETFs.

They also revised the 2025 target from $2,890 to $3,300.

UBS Group also sees $3,500 by December 2026. According to UBS strategist Joni Teves (, central banks added over 1,200 tons of gold in 2026 alone.

In the balance of the Thai economy, if the $4,900 target translates into gold prices, the price could surge to 75,000-80,000 Baht per Baht of gold by 2026, despite potential short-term corrections )Rebound(. The overall trend remains bullish.

Technical Signals: Signs of Buying Pressure

From the XAUUSD candlestick chart, the recent spike )up $250 in just a few days( indicates strong buying momentum. The RSI )Relative Strength Index( is currently in overbought territory, which may warn of a short-term correction. However, if RSI remains high, the uptrend is still resilient.

Candlestick pattern analysis shows a Shooting Star, which could be a warning sign. But in a strong uptrend, such pullbacks are often just pauses.

Beware of Reversal Factors

Although the trend is upward, risks include:

• US-China trade negotiations succeed, potentially reversing gold prices as the main buying driver is flight-to-safety.
• Profit-taking may cause a correction after 8 weeks of strong gains.
• Dollar strengthening if the US economy performs better than expected, putting downward pressure on gold.
• High interest rates if the Fed signals a pause or halt in rate cuts.

Three Strategies for Beginners Wanting to Trade

Buy the Dip: Wait to buy when prices dip to $3,859 )at the monthly support( or $3,782, setting a stop-loss below $3,750, with profit targets at $4,059-$4,113.

Breakout Retest: When prices break above $4,000, wait for a pullback to test the previous support )$3,980-$4,000(, then buy on the rebound, setting SL at $3,950.

Fibonacci Retracement: Draw from $3,500 )old point( to $4,059 )high point(, and look for buy signals at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels.

Summary

Gold in 2025-2026 can still go higher, with major institutions targeting $4,900, which could translate to 75,000-80,000 Baht in Thailand. However, be cautious: such markets are dense, prices can rise and fall quickly. The key is to timing your entries well and patiently wait for corrections before entering the market.