#数字资产行情上升 The re-emergence of the Federal Funds Rate variable, what signals is the market sensing?

In early January, Federal Reserve officials made a significant statement—interest rates should be cut by at least 100 basis points by 2026. Once the news broke, US stocks responded positively, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hitting record highs. The tech sector also celebrated across the board, with chip manufacturers surging over 25%. At the same time, the RMB midpoint exchange rate fell to 7.0187, indicating that international capital is already betting on the exchange rate trend.

However, this optimistic policy expectation cannot hide the deep divisions within the Federal Reserve. The latest meeting minutes reveal sharp contradictions: hawks and doves each hold their own views, and the dot plot shows a torn pattern. On one side is the resilient economic growth at 4.3%, while on the other, the unemployment rate quietly rose to 4.6%, and inflation data remains stubborn. Decision-makers openly state that the market environment is as fragile as walking on thin ice.

Central banks worldwide are also not aligned: Japan has opened the window for rate hikes, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England choose to wait and see, reshaping the dollar liquidity landscape. More complex is the upcoming transition of the Federal Reserve chairmanship, with the new nominee still undecided, adding uncertainty to policy continuity.

The explosive demand for AI chips supports the rally in tech stocks; precious metals are also benefiting, with silver breaking through the $80 mark. Asia-Pacific markets are not to be outdone, with Hong Kong and A-shares posting significant gains.

But upon closer inspection, this round of market movement hides a complex game—intertwined with liquidity turning points, geopolitical tensions, and personnel changes. Will rate cuts come as scheduled, and will they trigger new market imbalances? Cryptocurrencies like $BTC, $ZEC, and $SUI are also carrying these expectations. The market is re-pricing risk.