#密码资产动态追踪 Will the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in March? Here's what the latest CME data says

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According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, market enthusiasm for rate cuts has noticeably cooled.

**The story for January is simple: hold steady**

This month, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is as high as 88%, and the market has almost fully priced in this expectation. Less than 12% of traders still expect a rate cut in January, but that probability is very small. Traders are now looking further ahead to later timeframes.

**March is the real turning point**

By the March meeting, the situation begins to shift. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 40.3%—which sounds significant, but the chance of holding steady remains higher at 55.4%. As for the aggressive scenario of a one-time 50 basis point cut? The market’s answer is: don’t count on it, the probability is less than 5%.

**Market shifts from enthusiasm to caution**

Think back two months ago, when many were loudly predicting an imminent wave of rate cuts. Now, the tone has changed. Inflation remains, economic data is still strong, and the Fed has become more patient. A prolonged high-interest-rate environment may be the new consensus.

**What’s your take?**

Are traders being overly cautious, or are rate cuts truly just delayed and not canceled? Could the first rate cut come unexpectedly? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s keep an eye on the Fed’s upcoming moves.