#2026年比特币价格展望 Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this year? CME data provides a somewhat surprising answer.

Recently, I looked at the latest data from CME "FedWatch," and found that the market's enthusiasm for rate cuts has indeed cooled down. The enthusiasm from earlier this year, the "Fed must cut rates" fervor, is now much calmer.

**January is basically a no-go**
An 88% probability remains — this month, the Fed is very likely to hold steady and maintain current rates. Rate cuts? Currently, only a 11.6% chance, which is basically negligible. Traders' attention has already shifted to the coming months.

**March is the real focus**
Things start to get interesting at the March meeting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 40.3%, but the likelihood of "holding steady" is higher, at 55.4%. As for a 50 basis point cut in one go? That's a long shot, with less than a 5% chance.

**Market sentiment: from excitement to caution**
Honestly, many people were overly optimistic about rate cuts before. Now, everyone is gradually realizing that inflation is quite sticky, and economic data are stronger than expected. The Fed now has more reasons to "wait and see." High interest rates may stay for a while longer — this has become the new market consensus.

The performance of coins like $BTC, $DOGE, and $PEPE also somewhat reflects this shift in expectations.

**What do you think about this?**
Is the market being too cautious now, or are rate cuts just delayed and not canceled? Do we really have to wait until March for the first cut? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s watch how the Fed moves next.