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Polymarket claims "no inside information"? That's laughable.
New account, just registered.
Place bets in seconds.
Extremely rare markets.
A deadline as tight as it can get.
And a few hours later?
The US Navy was deployed. Helicopters, destroyers, submarines lurking nearby. The whole world was watching. The oil tanker Marinera was seized.
Is this what you call "good luck"?
The information asymmetry problem in prediction markets has surfaced again. When some participants have an informational advantage that others do not, fairness itself becomes a joke. This is not the first time, and it won't be the last.