The stock market has patterns, but Bitcoin always loves to throw a wrench in the works.

At the beginning of the year, US stocks benefited from a lot of seasonal capital inflows, but Bitcoin's logic is completely different. As the calendar effect—this "万能借口"—gradually loses its effectiveness, macro correlations also start to break down, and the simple, straightforward narratives in the market become less reliable.

So where are the truly useful signals? The key still lies in market structure, technical resets, and the real actions of actual capital. These are the hard currencies that truly matter.

Entering 2026, many macro indicators indeed look quite optimistic. But there's a curse—history tells us that when optimism peaks, it often signals the most false signals.

So what should we really be watching? We still need to focus on the money of real capital. Are they preparing for the next round of systemic transformation? This question is more valuable than any fancy technical indicators.