#数字资产行情上升 $XAU 1.8 Gold Price Midday Review | What does this wave of correction mean? My view might differ from yours

These past couple of days, as gold prices dropped, the group chat exploded. The most asked question was: Should I turn short? Has it reached the top? Honestly, I don’t see this as an "earthquake."

How to put it—this looks more like a shakeout.

The data is clear: from over 4300 on January 5th, it surged all the way to the 4500 level, with a fierce rally. If it doesn’t pull back at this point, that would be strange. Currently, it’s oscillating around 4430-4440, but it’s still firmly above 4400, and the overall structure remains intact.

I can see the source of the selling quite clearly. It’s not that the market suddenly turns bearish on gold, but rather that index rebalancing forces are forcing the sell-off. In simple terms, it’s mechanical selling due to "mandatory selling within a set time," not a major player fleeing. So, you can observe an interesting phenomenon: as soon as the price is pushed near 4400, there’s immediate support, preventing it from breaking down further. This shows the bulls’ strength is still there.

Looking at the bigger picture: the central banks are still buying gold, the Fed’s rate cut expectations remain, and geopolitical conflicts haven’t fully subsided—these three factors ensure that a true bearish trend in gold is unlikely as long as they persist. So below 4400, I personally wouldn’t chase short positions.

From a technical perspective, it’s quite simple:
4400 is the dividing line—holding above it means a correction for the bulls; with resistance around 4480-4500, if it doesn’t break through, treat it as consolidation, don’t chase blindly.

The trading logic is straightforward: don’t chase highs, stay calm, and wait for a pullback to enter in line with the rhythm.

For big gold positions, buy in batches around 4410-4420.
Set stop-loss at 4395.
Short-term targets are 4460-4480; once it stabilizes, aim for 4500.

If 4400 really gets broken, then just observe patiently—don’t fight it, wait for the next opportunity.

One last honest word: the market is never about testing the top; it’s about riding the trend. Until key levels are broken, I remain in the bullish camp. $BTC $ETH