XRP spot ETF outflows of $40.8 million in a single day, why did the price rise against the trend?

Eastern Time January 7th, US XRP spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $40.8 million in a single day, with the largest product, 21Shares TOXR, outflowing $47.25 million. However, despite this outflow, XRP’s price showed resilience, rising over 17% in the past 7 days. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon reflects the current market’s divided perception of XRP and inconsistent attitudes among institutional investors.

Specifics of ETF Outflows

According to the latest data, on January 7th Eastern Time, the US XRP spot ETF market saw significant fund outflows:

The total net asset value of XRP spot ETFs is currently $1.53 billion. Meanwhile, Solana spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.97 million, all from Bitwise BSOL, with a total net asset value of $1.08 billion.

Price Performance vs. Outflows

An interesting phenomenon has emerged. Despite a single-day net outflow of $40.8 million from ETFs, XRP’s price did not weaken accordingly:

• Last 24 hours: down 4.29% to $2.16
• Last 7 days: up 17.22%
• Last 30 days: up 5.20%

From a temporal perspective, XRP’s overall upward trend remains robust. Market analysis indicates that XRP’s strong performance over the past week is driven by multiple factors, including the approval of XRP spot ETFs, inflows from institutional funds (such as Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, with XRP spot ETF net inflows exceeding $1.25 billion), and Ripple’s cross-chain expansion of RLUSD stablecoin.

Signals of Diverging Institutional Attitudes

Notably, while 21Shares TOXR experienced significant outflows, the Bitwise XRP ETF continued to see inflows. This suggests differing views among institutional investors regarding XRP. According to recent reports, Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ saw the largest inflow ($7.35 million), followed by Canary’s XRPC ($6.49 million) and Bitwise’s funds ($3.54 million). This divergence indicates that some market participants are still actively accumulating, while others are taking profits and reducing their positions.

Market Sentiment Complexity

Recent market analysis points to underlying concerns amid XRP’s rally. Analysts suggest that XRP’s rebound may be more of a “dead cat bounce,” showing fragility in several aspects:

• Weak trading volume: 24-hour volume down 40.41% from the previous day to $396 million
• Technical weakness: bearish RSI divergence on hourly charts, indicating waning short-term momentum
• Key support levels under pressure: price stagnating near major moving averages, reflecting lack of market confidence

These factors, combined with ETF outflows, imply that the current price increase may lack sustainable buying support.

Long-term Fundamentals Still Supportive

However, it is worth noting that XRP’s fundamental environment is improving. Ripple executives recently stated that XRP has established a clear legal status as a non-security digital asset in the US through a milestone court ruling. This regulatory clarity provides a foundation for XRP’s long-term development and may be one of the reasons attracting ongoing institutional interest.

Future Focus Points

Based on current market performance, several key points to watch include:

• Short-term support levels: $2.05–$2.10. Falling below this range could trigger further declines
• Key resistance level: $2.56. Breaking and holding above could lead to further upside
• Volume trend: monitoring whether trading volume can return to normal levels, as volume recovery is crucial for price sustainability
• Institutional flows: continue tracking fund movements across ETF products to gauge shifts in institutional sentiment

Summary

The coexistence of a $40.8 million single-day outflow from XRP spot ETFs with rising prices reflects the current complex market sentiment. It is neither a straightforward bullish nor bearish signal but rather a balancing act between profit-taking and continued optimism among investors.

Key points are: XRP’s upward trend remains intact, but short-term correction pressures exist; divergence among institutions indicates incomplete market consensus; weak volume and technical vulnerabilities warrant caution. For investors focused on XRP, it is critical to observe whether the price can hold the $2.05–$2.10 support zone and whether volume can recover. In the long term, regulatory clarity and increased institutional participation are positive factors, but short-term volatility and risks persist.