The crypto market kicked off 2026 with intensity. Price action is loud, but structure matters more than headlines. Let's delve into this calmly and clearly, using multi-timeframe logic instead of emotion.

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Market Snapshot (January 15)

Bitcoin reached a new high at $97,899

Ethereum is hovering around $3,330

The real question is not hype; it's timing. Should we buy strength, buy pullbacks, or protect profits?

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1) Bitcoin: Breakout Achieved, Now Comes Confirmation

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains in a classic staircase uptrend, with shallow pullbacks and increasingly stronger rebounds.

Price is holding above the EMA30 at $93,006, with EMA7 and EMA30 in a clean golden cross

The 120-day MA near $91,126 continues to act as long-term structural support

MACD expansion indicates that the medium-term trend remains bullish and not exhausted

The January 14 candle is crucial. The long upper and lower wicks reflect active trading, but its close above $95,000 confirms acceptance above a key resistance zone. On the 4-hour chart, momentum is cooling, but not reversing.

Price tapped $97,899 and then pulled back to around $96,800

DIF and DEA remain bullishly aligned

The MACD histogram is shrinking, signaling short-term fatigue rather than a trend failure

Key Levels

Resistance: $97,800–$98,000 (psychological and historical supply)

Support: $96,000 → $95,000 → $93,400 (EMA30 zone)

Interpretation
Bitcoin is in a post-breakout confirmation phase. Maintaining above $96,000 with volume leaves the door open for another attempt at $98,000. A loss of $95,000 raises the likelihood of a healthy pullback toward $93,400, fitting a bullish structure.

This is not distribution yet; it's digestion.

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2) Ethereum: Compression Before Direction

Ethereum presents a different narrative, with less emotion, and more balance.

On the daily chart, price is trapped in a dense resistance cluster:

MA50: $3,128

MA100: $3,292

MA200: $3,342

Repeated rejections here are significant, indicating active sellers. RSI at 51 confirms neutrality, and MACD is flat, lacking directional bias.

On the 4-hour chart, the structure appears constructive but cautious.

Higher lows from $3,280 → $3,300

Price recently rebounded to $3,402 and is now consolidating near $3,330

Key Levels

Resistance: $3,390–$3,400, then $3,450

Support: $3,300 → $3,280 → $3,100

Interpretation
Ethereum is in a consolidation and accumulation phase. A clear breakout above $3,400 with volume would shift momentum toward $3,450. Failure to break may send price back to $3,300–$3,280, with $3,100 serving as deeper structural support.

ETH is coiling; direction comes after expansion.

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Final Take

Bitcoin is leading, but needs confirmation rather than chasing. Ethereum is compressing, awaiting a trigger.

This is not a market for emotional all-ins or panic exits; it's a market for levels, patience, and reaction. Strength should be respected, while weakness should be measured. The chart will always speak first.
#我的2026第一条帖