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$RIVER Analyzing the upcoming operations from a market maker's perspective
Current possible objectives of the market maker:
1. The whales' long positions are highly profitable (average price 28.56), creating profit-taking pressure.
2. The price has fallen from a high of 66 to 49.8 but remains at a high level, possibly weakening retail traders' willingness to chase the high.
3. Short-term selling pressure is evident (whales and smart money net selling), indicating large players are reducing positions at highs.
Next possible steps:
Step 1: Test the resistance above and observe retail traders' follow-through
The price is currently oscillating in the 49-50 range, with a slight attempt to push up to the 52-53 range (close to the short's average opening price of 51.9), to see if it triggers short stop-losses or attracts long chasing.
If volume does not increase during the rally, it indicates insufficient follow-through, and a pullback may occur.
Step 2: Create oscillation to clear out floating positions
Repeated oscillation between 48-52, using high volatility to trigger stop-loss orders (especially targeting recent long chasers).
At this point, small-scale selling can be coordinated (as whales are already doing), to create a "false breakout followed by a pullback" pattern.
Step 3: Choose a direction for a breakout
If market sentiment remains enthusiastic, consider pushing the price back up to the previous high near 66 to lure longs and then sharply distribute.
If selling pressure continues to increase, the market may be pushed down to 40-45 to clear long leverage.
Step 4: Position management
As a market maker, with whales' long positions highly profitable, gradually reduce long holdings (already happening).
Keep some core positions to control the market rhythm.
Observe whether short positions increase; if shorts become too concentrated, consider pushing a reverse explosion to the downside.
The above are just reasonable speculations and do not constitute investment advice. $RIVER