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$ENSO The buying side is pushing the price, but I’ll explain carefully so you don’t get caught in a trap:
⸻
🔍 What’s happening on the 1H chart
• Consecutive green candles + lower wicks → buyers are supporting the price around 1.33–1.36
• The price has bounced from the bottom at 1.273 → this is a technical rebound
• Volume has increased → confirming genuine buying pressure, not hollow candles
👉 But…
⸻
⚠️ Major issue: where is the buying side pushing?
• The price is still below EMA30 (~1.70) → the main trend is still down
• EMA5 & EMA10 have not crossed above EMA30
• Previous times:
• Price touched EMA30 and was sold down immediately (you also noticed this point)
👉 So currently:
The buying side is pushing for a rebound – NOT a trend reversal yet
⸻
🎯 Most likely scenario
🟡 Scenario 1 – Rebound then sold (high probability)
• Price rebounds:
• 1.50 – 1.60
• Encountering:
• EMA30 + old supply zone
• After that:
• Continued selling → back to 1.30 – 1.27
⸻
🟢 Scenario 2 – True trend reversal (has not happened)
Only when all 3 conditions are met:
1. 1H candle closes confidently above 1.70
2. EMA5 & EMA10 cross above EMA30
3. Volume increases significantly
👉 Only then can we talk about moving to 1.9 – 2.0
⸻
❓ To summarize for you
• ✅ The buying side is pushing the price → correct
• ⚠️ It’s just a technical rebound
• ❌ Not enough conditions for a trend reversal
• 🧠 Currently in a risky zone for chasing longs