Today’s Market Overview


Starting to drive back home today, so just a quick market overview...
Figure 1 shows that we have broken out of a previous downward channel... but currently still under the resistance of the 6W AVWAP from the upward move (below the three green lines in the chart).
Figure 2, from the POC perspective, indicates that we are also emerging from a POC downward auction process, beginning to move upward... The two naked POCs at (7W / 6W5) define the current temporary range... And the 6W8 AVWAP resistance point just happens to be the midpoint boundary...
So, this position is basically a crossroads between bulls and bears... A breakout and stabilization could lead to a challenge of 70K; if it can't break through, it will continue to play below...
There’s not much liquidity over the weekend, so I won’t be betting on the direction here...
Figure 3, from the order book, shows that the spot market is still relatively balanced between buy and sell orders, with no imbalance bands. The grid orders at 67K and 68K define a small range...
However, there is a large order resistance near 68.2K in the futures market... which could be the high point of weekend resistance (depending on whether orders are canceled or not, as spoofing is possible with such orders).
So... it seems there’s not much to do over the weekend...
If I were to do anything, it would be short near 68K, focusing on the resistance of the AVWAP and the 68.2K futures order... but this requires monitoring closely because orders can be canceled, and there’s no big order resistance in the spot market. Overall, there’s no strong resonance...
I’ll be driving soon, so I won’t be doing anything now... Let’s see how it plays out...
With the weekend’s tariff ripple, it’s probably better not to get involved...
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