#JaneStreet10AMSellOff

The topic you're asking about is a viral discussion in the cryptocurrency community (especially Bitcoin traders) that peaked in February 2026. It centers on a repeated price pattern in Bitcoin where the price often dropped sharply around 10:00 AM Eastern Time (U.S. time), which is roughly when the New York stock market opens and trading activity ramps up.
This pattern became known as the "10 AM dump," "10 AM sell-off," "morning slam," or similar terms. Many retail traders and online commentators blamed a specific major Wall Street trading firm called Jane Street for causing it through deliberate large-scale selling.
What Traders Claimed Was Happening
For several months (prominently from late 2025 into early 2026), Bitcoin would frequently:
Build gains during overnight/Asian or European trading sessions.
Then, right around 10:00 AM ET (U.S. market open), experience a quick 2–5% drop (sometimes more).
This drop would trigger:
Stop-loss orders being hit (automatic sells from traders protecting against losses).
Margin calls and liquidations on leveraged positions (especially on crypto exchanges with high leverage like 10x–100x).
Panic selling from retail traders.
The result: Prices fell further in a cascade, shaking out "weak hands" (nervous holders), before often stabilizing or recovering later in the day.
The accusation against Jane Street was that they ran an algorithmic strategy (a programmed trading system) to sell large amounts of Bitcoin (or create selling pressure) at that exact time every trading day. Why?
To push the price lower artificially.
Trigger the chain reaction of liquidations and fear-selling.
Buy back Bitcoin (or accumulate shares in Bitcoin spot ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT) at cheaper prices.
Repeat daily for steady profits while keeping upward momentum capped.
This theory exploded because:
Regulatory filings (13F reports) showed Jane Street as one of the largest holders of BlackRock's IBIT ETF shares — holding over 20 million shares worth hundreds of millions to potentially over $790 million by late 2025/early 2026.
They are a major authorized participant (AP) and market maker for these ETFs, meaning they handle creation/redemption of ETF shares by buying/selling underlying Bitcoin.
Jane Street has faced past scrutiny (e.g., restrictions or fines in India for alleged manipulative trading in derivatives).
A lawsuit from Terraform Labs' bankruptcy estate (related to the 2022 TerraUSD collapse) accused them of insider trading and profiting from non-public information — this news hit publicly around February 23–25, 2026.
Right after the lawsuit became widely known:
The alleged daily 10 AM drops stopped (or became much less noticeable).
Bitcoin rallied strongly — jumping from lows around $62–65K toward $66–70K in a short time, with one of its best sessions in weeks/months.
Traders celebrated online with comments like "the algo shut off," "that's all it took," or "Jane Street backed off after exposure."
Many felt this timing proved the manipulation theory: legal pressure forced them to stop the supposed selling program.
The Reality: Why This Pattern Exists (Without Needing Conspiracy)
Analysts, researchers, and data experts largely rejected the idea of one firm (even a big one like Jane Street) systematically manipulating Bitcoin daily for months. Key reasons and explanations include:
U.S. market open mechanics — The 9:30–10:30 AM ET window is naturally volatile in all markets (stocks, crypto included). It brings:
Fresh institutional liquidity and order flow.
Reactions to overnight news, economic data, or global events.
Correlation with stock indexes (Bitcoin often moves with Nasdaq/S&P when U.S. traders come online).
ETF arbitrage and creation/redemption — Firms like Jane Street act as middlemen. If the ETF trades at a discount to the actual Bitcoin price (e.g., due to retail selling panic), they buy Bitcoin spot, create new ETF shares, and profit from the difference. Large sells can appear on exchanges but are often providing liquidity, not malicious dumping.
Data checks showed no consistent pattern:
Analysts (e.g., from K33 Research, macro experts like Alex Kruger, and others) looked at hourly Bitcoin returns.
In the 10–10:30 AM ET window over relevant periods, Bitcoin performance was actually slightly positive on average (e.g., around +0.9% cumulative in some analyses), not systematically negative.
Moves often tracked broader equity flows or macro events, not one firm's actions.
Bitcoin is too big to be controlled by one player — With a multi-trillion-dollar market cap and global 24/7 trading, no single firm can force prolonged suppression without massive cost and risk. Patterns self-correct (traders anticipate and counter them).
Other real factors for morning pressure:
Options/futures hedging or rolling.
Portfolio rebalancing by institutions.
Lower overnight liquidity making any sell order look bigger.
High leverage in crypto amplifying normal volatility into dramatic drops.
The "sudden stop" and rally after the lawsuit? Likely coincidence or sentiment-driven:
Relief from broader selling pressure.
Macro tailwinds or natural bounce after lows.
Traders front-running the narrative (buying because they believed the "dump" ended).
Bottom Line and Lessons
This whole discussion was a classic crypto community storm: real frustration with intraday volatility + visible institutional flows + timing with a lawsuit + a big price rally = viral conspiracy narrative. While Jane Street's size in ETFs makes them a natural target for blame, solid evidence points to normal market structure (U.S. open dynamics, arbitrage, correlated flows) rather than coordinated evil by one firm.
It highlights how crypto markets (especially with high leverage) turn everyday liquidity events into dramatic "attacks." Retail traders feel played, but the market is maturing with Wall Street involvement — meaning more predictable volatility windows, but also deeper liquidity over time.
For anyone trading: Avoid fighting predictable noise like morning U.S. opens if you're leveraged. Focus on bigger trends, manage risk, and remember — in volatile markets, patience often wins over chasing every dip or pump. The pattern may fade as more data and participants adapt.