Why do analysts dismiss the 'Bitcoin free fall in 2026' scenario — What does the data say?

Michaël van de Poppe, one of the widely followed cryptocurrency analysts, has just dismissed the common view that 2026 will be a “crisis” year for Bitcoin. What does dismissing mean when it comes from specific data? It means reversing expectations with undeniable evidence. According to Van de Poppe, although concerns about a major correction seem reasonable on the surface, the details about market cycles, global liquidity conditions, and Bitcoin’s current position within the financial system tell a completely different story.

The four-year cycle is over, and the market is developing in a new way

One key point in the analysis is the recognition that the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer an unbreakable rule. Instead, the market is shifting toward a new structure, where capital flows from institutional investors play a more decisive role than traditional technical factors. Van de Poppe points out that in previous years, Bitcoin often experienced periodic crashes: 30% in 2014, 74% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. However, repeating such a pattern is not a strict rule. The current cycle has deviated in a different direction, diverging from the classic models that investors have been expecting.

Capital flows: Why the divergence between gold and Bitcoin is a positive signal

Recently, capital flows have taken a notable turn — gold has continuously hit new all-time highs while Bitcoin remains weak. This is not a negative signal but rather an indicator of upcoming significant volatility. History shows that when financial systems exhibit similar divergence signs, they are often followed by explosive rallies in risk assets like Bitcoin. Van de Poppe emphasizes that gold has absorbed trillions of dollars in capital over a short period. This means that Bitcoin, being more volatile, could become the next target for investors seeking higher yields in an environment of abundant liquidity.

Central bank liquidity: Macro environment supporting risk assets

Looking at the broader macroeconomic picture, the factors supporting Bitcoin become clear. Rising unemployment rates, weakening bond yields, and increasing liquidity demands from central banks — especially in the US — are creating a very different landscape from what investors have forecasted. The pressure from government debt burdens is forcing fiscal policies to acknowledge that interest rates must fall, creating a long-term environment strongly supportive of high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Compared to the money supply (M2), both gold and Bitcoin are not overvalued — in fact, there is still room for further growth.

Technical RSI signals: Rare oversold levels indicating upcoming opportunities

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is sending interesting signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into oversold territory, a phenomenon quite rare in Bitcoin’s price history. These RSI levels often coincide with major market lows, where positive surprises are most likely to occur. When combined with macroeconomic factors supporting the market, the common expectation of an “inevitable crash” in 2026 becomes less convincing. Instead, data suggests that the market is almost certain to enter a recovery phase rather than continue a downward trend.

Outlook: Optimism returns as Bitcoin approaches $100,000

In conclusion, no one can definitively say whether 2026 will bring gains or losses for Bitcoin. However, current data points to a relatively stable picture with opportunities for positive surprises, rather than an unavoidable crash. Van de Poppe states that if Bitcoin can approach the $100,000 level, the bullish trend could accelerate rapidly. This is when investors are most skeptical, but these periods are often when the market returns to its most optimistic state.