Merck's 2026 performance guidance falls short of expectations, and strategies to address the expiration of Keytruda patents attract attention

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-11T22:58:48+00:00

Merck expects sales to reach $65.5 billion to $67 billion by 2026, influenced by the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics. The expiration of the Keytruda patent has slowed growth, which is being offset by new products and acquisitions. The company may acquire Revolution Medicines in the future to strengthen its oncology drug portfolio, and product development is ongoing, but the decline in HPV vaccine sales warrants attention.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-11 22:58:48

Abstract generation in progress

Healthcare Observer based on the latest public information, Merck (MRK.US) has the following noteworthy events in 2026:

Performance and Operations

According to the 2025 financial report released in early February 2026, Merck expects 2026 sales to be between $65.5 billion and $67 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $5.00 to $5.15. This guidance is below Wall Street expectations, mainly due to a one-time expense related to the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics.

Company Status

Keytruda’s (K drug) key patent is expected to gradually expire starting in 2028, with growth slowing (2025 sales of $31.7 billion, up 7%). Merck is extending product lifecycle through promoting subcutaneous formulations like Qlex (which achieved $35 million in U.S. sales in Q4 2025) and strategic acquisitions. In a January 2026 report, Wolfe Research projected that by 2029, 41% of Keytruda’s intravenous injection revenue will shift to the subcutaneous version.

Company Status

Reports indicate Merck is in talks to acquire biotech company Revolution Medicines, with a deal potentially valued at $28 billion to $32 billion. If completed, it would be one of the major pharmaceutical deals in recent years. The move aims to acquire experimental drug Daraxonrasib and strengthen the oncology pipeline.

Product Development Progress

Pulmonary hypertension drug Winrevair (Sotretide) achieved $1.443 billion in sales in 2025, becoming a key product. Its new indications are expected to gain FDA approval in 2026. Oral PCSK9 inhibitor Enlicitide and other cardiovascular products are also in late-stage development, potentially serving as new growth drivers.

Company Status

HPV vaccine Gardasil saw a 39% year-over-year decline in sales in 2025, down to $5.233 billion, affected by decreased demand in China and updates to U.S. vaccination guidelines (lower recommended doses). Continued monitoring is needed to assess recovery.

The above information is compiled from public sources and does not constitute investment advice.

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