Solana at a critical point – does the negation support or confirm the trend?

Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $87.03, up 1.72% over the past 24 hours, but the broader price picture remains complex. Is the current consolidation leading to a bullish correction, or will a rejection of key levels indicate deeper declines? This question divides analysts and traders watching the current turning point for SOL.

Support at $118–120 and the Significance of Rejection in Price Structure

After a sharp decline from November highs, Solana has been holding around the $118–120 level for the past few weeks. This area has become a natural magnet for buyers, who have repeatedly intervened when testing support. Observing the price action, it’s clear that each attack toward the lower end of this range has encountered quick support.

For traders, understanding the concept of rejection is crucial. In technical analysis, rejection means breaking below and closing under a support or resistance level, negating its effectiveness as a defense. If SOL stays above $118, rejection will not occur — support remains active. Conversely, a break below this level would open the door to testing the $105–100 zone.

The price structure indicates compression around a narrowing range, suggesting decreasing downward momentum. Although the price is still trading below a descending trendline, the slowing of the decline signals that selling pressure is weakening.

Technical Signals: Do RSI and Divergence Indicate a Change?

On the 4-hour chart, early signs of momentum improvement are emerging. The RSI shows bullish divergence — the price makes lower lows, while the indicator rises. This is a classic warning that sellers are losing strength despite maintaining control of the trend.

On the daily chart, the structure resembles a double bottom formation. This is another signal suggesting a foundation for a potential upward move. However, it’s important to note — these are early indications, not confirmations. Until SOL makes a clear move higher, all these signals should be considered possible but not certain.

Momentum is gradually normalizing, but the trend remains bearish. Much depends on whether the upward movement can be defended at higher levels or if it’s merely a pause before further declines.

Key Levels and the Bearish Scenario if Below $118

For traders, identifying levels that will determine the next direction is vital:

• Lowest support: $118–120 (currently tested)
• First resistance: $132–136 (nearby)
• Strong supply zone: $145–158 → $160 (far but critical)
• Bullish scenario negation: break below $118
• Target for further declines: $105 → $100

As long as SOL remains below the $145–160 zone, bears maintain control. This doesn’t mean a rally isn’t possible, but any upward move should be approached with caution. If the price reaches this zone and gets rejected, it will be a clear sign that the previous downtrend is resuming. In that case, negation of support at $118 will likely be only a matter of time.

Conditions for Confirming a Rise — What the Market Is Waiting For

For a genuine change in the price structure, specific conditions must be met:

1. Break and acceptance above the descending trendline — the first confirmation of a trend change
2. Sustained trading above $132 with increasing volume — a sign that buyers are stepping in
3. RSI rising above neutral zone — confirming divergence turning into momentum shift

Without these confirmations, any upward move may merely be a series of lower highs, not a structural trend reversal. The market needs proof before it’s willing to accept a bullish scenario.

Current SOL Situation — Entry or Observation?

Investors face a clear question: buy now or wait? The answer: this is an observation zone, not a conviction.

Current conditions suggest a potential bullish correction bounce, but there’s no confirmation of a lasting trend change. Support at $118–120 holds, and RSI divergence is promising, but it’s only the beginning. Traders should wait for a break above $132, especially a test of the $145–160 zone, before considering larger long positions.

Let the price prove its strength. If the rejection of $118 occurs, declines could accelerate quickly.

Forecast for 2026: Growth Scenarios and Risks

In the longer term, SOL could face various scenarios:

• Bullish scenario: If Solana adoption and ecosystem development continue, SOL could reach $180–$250 by 2026.
• Bearish scenario: If market conditions worsen or adoption stalls, the risk of dropping to $120 remains.

Much depends on whether current support holds and if there are signs of trend reversal.

FAQ — Common Questions Answered

Is Solana currently in an uptrend?
No. SOL remains in a broader downtrend. Current signals suggest a potential correction, not a confirmed reversal.

Is now a good time to buy SOL?
This is an observation zone, not a conviction. Wait for a confirmed break above $132 before considering larger long positions.

What does rejection mean in this context?
Rejection means breaking support at $118 and closing below it. If that happens, declines could deepen toward $105–$100.

What are realistic scenarios for SOL in 2026?
In a bullish scenario, SOL could test $180–$250; in a bearish scenario, the risk of falling to $120 remains open.