How much further can the Bitcoin bearish trend go after falling below 98,000

Based on the recent 1-hour structure, many long-term technical analysts should understand—once a trend is established, it’s difficult to reverse easily. Bitcoin recently dropped from a high of 98,000 down to 74,000. What does this intense price fluctuation actually signify? Essentially, it’s not just a simple technical correction but the official start of a new downtrend cycle.

Key Breakthrough in the Downtrend: Structural Shift from 94,000 to 98,000

In terms of technical pattern evolution, traders paying attention to this decline could already see the signs. After the price effectively broke through 94,000, we began closely monitoring this move. Approaching 98,000, I clearly identified the top—this isn’t a complex correction of the previous rally but a signal that a new downward trend has officially begun.

Traders who followed the trend at this point could have started participating near 94,000 or even above 90,000. From 98,000 down to 74,000, Bitcoin experienced a drop of over 20,000 points in a relatively short period—this magnitude is quite significant.

Why Rapid Declines Make Holding Positions Easier

In practical trading, there’s an interesting phenomenon: many trend traders find it hard to hold onto a large move entirely. The reason is simple—if the decline takes too long, say three weeks or a month, any rebounds or consolidations along the way can trigger market speculation. Traders start doubting: “Is the trend over?” and often choose to close early and take losses.

But this decline was different. It advanced rapidly in a short time, and this speed actually helps most trend-following traders stay confident and hold their positions, rather than being scared out by interim fluctuations. Psychologically, this “fast-paced” market can reinforce confidence in the trend.

How to Handle Existing Shorts After 74,000

If you’re still holding short positions now, the answer is straightforward—there’s no need to close all at this level. I previously suggested considering partial profit-taking to lock in gains, but it’s crucial to retain some positions to potentially capture larger drops later. This is the core of trend trading: passively letting profitable trades run rather than closing prematurely.

As long as the 1-hour and daily charts show no clear signs of bottoming or reversal, there’s no valid reason to exit this trend early. Currently, both timeframes remain in a downtrend, with no reversal signals. Therefore, existing shorts can be maintained with partial positions, continuing to participate in potential further declines.

Resistance Levels Are Key: Can 79,000 Become a New Critical Point?

From a multi-timeframe perspective, the overall structure still shows a bearish bias. On the 1-hour chart, the most obvious horizontal resistance is at 79,000. Importantly, this level has not been effectively broken.

This aligns with previous key levels like 84,000 and 90,000—if the resistance isn’t broken, the outlook remains bearish. If a rebound fails to surpass previous highs, it essentially offers new entry opportunities for shorts. The current rebound also hasn’t broken prior highs, so logically, short positions still have justification to hold.

How to Participate if You’re Currently Flat

For traders without any positions, the environment suggests only short-term trading opportunities—mainly shorting. But there’s a very important rule: stop-loss must come first. It’s recommended to set stops above 79,000 or even above the round number of 80,000.

Remember, short trades must be executed with strict stop-loss discipline. Because there’s always a possibility of a short-term breakout to the upside, and once broken, a stop-loss is the last safety net.

Three Conditions for Confirming a True Reversal

If the market is truly going to reverse the downtrend and turn bullish, two strict conditions must be met simultaneously: First, the key resistance must be broken effectively—that’s the basic requirement. Second, the market must form a clear bullish structure, i.e., “uptrend → correction → further uptrend,” confirming the pattern.

It’s especially important to note that if the reversal only occurs on the 1-hour chart, it’s more likely just a healthy correction within a larger downtrend, not a true reversal of the big cycle. Confirming a major trend reversal requires the daily or higher timeframe to show a genuine bullish alignment. Relying solely on 1-hour reversal signals isn’t enough to change the overall downtrend.

If a Reversal Occurs: Watch the 86,000–89,000 Resistance Zone

Assuming that later on, the 1-hour chart shows a breakout of resistance and a bullish structure forms, this could trigger a daily-level rebound. If such a rebound develops, the key resistance zone to watch is between 86,000 and 89,000.

However, it’s crucial to only consider long entries after the resistance is effectively broken and the structure is confirmed. Entering prematurely with longs will only lead to being shaken out repeatedly.

Why Trend Trading Is Safer Than Chasing Retracements

I always emphasize that in trending markets, only trading in the direction of the trend is the safest approach. The logic is simple: retracement trades (frequent switching between long and short) carry much higher risk, and greed to catch both sides easily disrupts the trading rhythm. When the rhythm is broken, chain reactions occur—chasing shorts at lows, chasing longs at highs, frequent stop-outs, and eventually losing confidence. This can turn a clear trend into a chaotic reversal.

If you’ve exited a trend prematurely, the best move isn’t to jump into new trades immediately but to patiently wait for a clear correction pattern to form. Only after confirmation should you re-enter trend-following positions at higher levels. This waiting may seem like wasted time, but it’s the best way to manage risk.

Summary of the Current Situation: The Bearish Trend Still Holds

Based on the current 1-hour structure, the market remains in a typical “decline → rebound → encounter resistance → consider shorting again” rhythm. This pattern aligns perfectly with previous key levels. Therefore, the current trading approach should primarily focus on a bearish bias.

Of course, this analysis is based on the current (March 12, 2026) technical outlook. I will also share a systematic review of the larger cycle’s trend and outlook to provide a more comprehensive market picture. If you’re interested in this kind of technical analysis, stay tuned and engage actively.