Iran's new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei: Where will a hardliner lead the war?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | jk

On March 8th, local time, the Iranian Expert Committee officially announced that 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei has been elected as the third Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This appointment occurred less than two weeks after his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US-Israel airstrike on February 28th, marking the first family succession of supreme power in Iran’s history.

Crisis Moment, Hasty Succession

On February 28, 2026, former Supreme Leader Khamenei’s residence in Tehran was targeted in a joint Israeli and American airstrike, resulting in the death of about 40 senior Iranian officials. Following confirmation of Khamenei’s assassination, Iran established a temporary leadership committee under Article 111 of the constitution, jointly led by President Pahlavani, Judiciary Chief Mohseni-Ejei, and Constitutional Oversight Board representative Ali Reza Alavi.

On March 3rd, the Expert Committee’s office in Qom was reportedly bombed, raising concerns that the election process might be disrupted. However, the 88-member clerical expert committee ultimately voted on the 8th, electing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, and issued a statement calling on all Iranians, especially the elites of seminaries and universities, to swear allegiance to the new leader and maintain national unity.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Source: BBC

Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?

Born in 1969 in Mashhad, Iran’s holy city, Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Ali Khamenei. His childhood coincided with his father’s rise as a revolutionary figure opposing the Pahlavi dynasty, and the turbulent years leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution profoundly shaped his political background. In religious education, Mojtaba studied under the late Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Moussavi Yazdi, a conservative theologian known for advocating a hardline stance and publicly claiming that “killing Iranian youth promoting Western immoralities” is doctrinally justified.

At age 17, Mojtaba joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), participating in combat during the Iran-Iraq War at the Habib Battalion. Analysts describe this battalion as “highly ideologically driven,” commanded by one of the founders of Hezbollah. Many comrades from this unit later became senior figures in Iran’s security and intelligence agencies, laying an important network foundation for his subsequent rise to power.

After his father became Supreme Leader in 1989, Mojtaba became one of his most important aides. Over the years, he remained active within the core circle of the Supreme Leader’s office, with his influence significantly increasing after the 2009 Green Movement protests. U.S. diplomatic cables (published by WikiLeaks) referred to him as “the real power behind the robe.” In 2019, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned him for allegedly aiding his father’s efforts to destabilize the region and suppress dissent domestically, also revealing that Khamenei had delegated some leadership responsibilities to him.

Contrasting his political influence, Mojtaba has almost never appeared publicly: he has never given a public speech, never led Friday prayers, and never made political statements, so many ordinary Iranians have never heard his voice. Reports suggest he has accumulated a vast network of economic interests across multiple countries, allegedly mobilizing billions of dollars through insiders and partners linked to Iranian authorities.

Mojtaba is now married and has at least one son and one daughter. His wife is the daughter of former Iranian Parliament Speaker Haddad-Adel.

Hardline Continuation, International Reactions Divided

Mojtaba’s election is widely seen as a signal that Iran’s hardliners remain firmly in control despite extreme pressure. Analysts point out that, given his deep ties with the Revolutionary Guard and security apparatus, it is highly unlikely Iran will reach a ceasefire with the US and Israel in the short term. Lebanese American University public policy researcher Rami Khouri described the appointment as a “contemptuous gesture,” signaling to the US and Israel that attempts to overthrow the Iranian regime will fail.

Domestically, Iranian President Pahlavani said the appointment heralds a “new era of national dignity and strength”; the Revolutionary Guard issued a statement pledging loyalty to the new leader and expressing readiness to obey his commands; Speaker Ghalibaf also called on Iranians to follow the new leader as a “religious and national duty.”

On the international stage, reactions are sharply divided. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed “steadfast support” for Mojtaba’s appointment, while China explicitly opposed any actions against the new Supreme Leader. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly declared Mojtaba’s appointment “unacceptable,” warning in an interview with ABC that “if the new leader is not recognized by the US, he will not last long.” The Israeli Defense Forces also issued warnings, stating that any successor to Khamenei would be considered a target for attack.

Market Predictions: Can Mojtaba Secure His Leadership Position?

Following Mojtaba Khamenei’s official appointment, multiple prediction markets related to Iran’s situation quickly emerged on the decentralized platform Polymarket, with traders betting on the political fate of the new leader.

“Will the Iranian leadership change before the designated date?” This market opened on the evening of March 8th, with total trading volume exceeding $530,000. Data shows significant divergence in traders’ assessments of the short-term likelihood that Mojtaba will be “removed from power”: as of March 13th, the probability is only 11%; by March 31st, it rises to 33%; and by April 30th, it reaches 45%. If the timeline extends to the end of the year (December 31), the probability that he will no longer hold power is as high as 69%. This indicates that over two-thirds of market participants believe Mojtaba will not be in actual control by the end of 2026.

Will the Iranian leadership change before the designated date? Source: Polymarket

“Who will lead Iran at the end of 2026?” Another market with over $1.42 million in total trading volume shows Mojtaba Khamenei currently leading with a 32% probability, but this figure reflects limited confidence in his continued rule. Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi ranks second at 17%, current President Pahlavani at 10%, and “no leader” (regime collapse or power vacuum) at 5%.

“Can Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?” This market’s total trading volume is nearly $490,000, with current odds at 18%, down more than 26 percentage points from earlier high points.