3.12 Choose a direction!

$Yunnan Energy Holdings (sz001896)$ Brief Note: In the current market, many times it is shrouded in fog. The reason is that under strict regulation, A-shares need to develop healthily, such as oscillating downward and issuing new shares, while also allowing quantitative and institutional funds to survive. As for retail investors and hot money, we can temporarily ignore them. In this environment, directions that previously could be identified within a week, such as concept main lines, now may take two weeks or even two months. This effectively prolongs the speculation period but also increases trading difficulty. For example, a 10% move might oscillate for a week before moving up. This is the current normal for A-shares and a market self-selection, which should be respected rather than complained about. As for the difference between humans, quantitative methods, or robots, I won’t elaborate here. Returning to the market, the index faces a choice of direction. Japan, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks are all in a rebound after breaking down. A-shares have been consolidating sideways recently. From certain perspectives, the external markets may reference A-shares’ movements. Currently, due to external conflicts and resource price increases—beyond just oil—inflation pressure is evident. The US may also consider interest rate cuts, and there is a visit to China at the end of the month, which leans toward a higher probability of upward testing. Regarding the direction, the trading volume rankings show that previously, technology stocks led, but recently, energy companies like CATL and Sunshine Power are at the forefront, indicating institutional fund flows. I remain optimistic about the computing power and energy collaboration. After a two-day adjustment, we will observe the recovery strength. Next, we analyze index levels and sentiment cycles:

1. Index Cycle Thinking:

The index is again repairing with increased volume. On Thursday, a real choice will be faced, and institutions may start to reduce net selling. This will reveal the true movement of institutional funds. I believe volatility may be relatively intense, but after the turbulence, the index should gradually return to normal. My short-term expectation is a renewed attempt at upward recovery. This is my view on the index cycle.

2. Sentiment Cycle Projection:

First, Dragon Analysis: Regarding leading stocks, the computing power and energy collaboration in YuNeng are key. Huawei Ascend and computing power are linked to Huasheng. However, due to external shocks and strict regulation, the paths are unlikely to be smooth—this will be the norm in the future. From Wednesday’s market, after two days of divergence in the computing power sector represented by ShunNa, YuNeng started to actively buy and strengthen on Wednesday. I predict Thursday’s recovery in the computing power sector, with YuNeng’s movement still serving as an emotional anchor point.

Second: Opportunity Analysis: Currently, the main theme in the market is computing power and energy collaboration. This is divided into two parts: computing power and electricity. Computing power includes major manufacturers, offshore token projects, and the lobster industry chain, with some overlap among stocks. The main directions are roughly categorized. The electricity sector is not just about power stocks but mainly about future energy. Since energy supply and computing power are interconnected, cooperation is key. Future energy will no longer be subdivided into detailed categories; instead, focus on speculation segments such as energy, transmission, and energy storage. Green electricity performed well last Friday and Monday, fermenting along with transmission, which includes offshore transformers and grid equipment. Starting Tuesday, Ningde’s earnings surged, and energy storage strengthened, then retreated on Wednesday. Moving forward, attention will be on the offshore and computing power core stocks that started adjusting on Tuesday, and how they recover on Thursday. Besides, hydrogen energy, methanol, brain-computer interfaces, 6G, and others will rotate. If Thursday’s index moves upward early and computing power resonates and recovers, it will be a game of strategic play. Conversely, if not, the energy sector will weaken and consolidate, with other sectors rotating.

Special Reminder: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. No stock recommendations are provided! Investment involves risks; please proceed cautiously!