$XAUT This week (around March 10-15, 2026), the trends in precious metals and crude oil are dominated by **Middle East geopolitical conflicts (US-Israel-Iran war)**, especially the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, exhibiting overall **high volatility and divergent directions**.

### Precious metals (gold + silver) are highly likely this week to
- **Short-term sideways with weak bias, tending to continue the pullback**, but not collapsing.
- Gold currently trades around **$5160-5200 per ounce** (intraday has already broken below $5180), with clear profit-taking and dollar rebound suppression seen at the start of the week.
- Silver is even weaker, with higher volatility, trading roughly in the **$85-88 per ounce** range, down 3-4%, with some periods even lower.
- Main reasons:
- Dollar index rebound + US Treasury yields rising (market re-pricing Fed path after non-farm payrolls).
- After some geopolitical risk premium has been realized, short-term safe-haven demand cools.
- Technically, gold has already retraced significantly from its high, silver's decline is larger (gold-silver ratio rising again).
- **Possible scenarios this week**:
- Continued pullback to support levels around gold $5100-5150 and silver $80-83, with potential for low-entry positions.
- If the Middle East situation suddenly worsens substantially (e.g., larger-scale attacks on energy facilities), a quick safe-haven rally could occur, but currently signals point more to short-term cooling.
- Overall medium-term remains bullish (central bank demand + supply deficit), but this week is likely a **high short, low long, more bearish trading window**.

### Crude oil this week is highly likely to
- **Exhibit extreme volatility, with a high probability of an initial surge followed by a pullback**, having already fallen sharply from a short-term high (approaching $120).
- WTI is currently oscillating around **$83-87**, similar for Brent (around $87-90).
- Over the past few days, an epic rollercoaster: a surge over 30% early in the week → rapid decline of 20-30%.
- Main drivers:
- The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with many Middle Eastern countries severely reducing output (total cuts exceeding 6 million barrels/day), actual supply shortfalls persist.
- Western countries have issued numerous statements (releasing strategic reserves, G7 coordination, escort expectations, Trump’s tough stance followed by easing signals), leading to quick profit-taking by speculative funds.
- EIA’s latest forecast: prices will stay above $95 in the next two months but may fall back to around $70 by year-end; also, institutions like Goldman Sachs have significantly raised short-term expectations.
- **Possible scenarios this week**:
- Any substantial news of “ceasefire/downgrade/partial reopening of the strait” could cause oil prices to drop another 10-15% (possibly below $80).
- If the conflict persists or escalates further (e.g., larger supply disruptions), violent surges to test $100-110 or higher are likely.
- The overall trend is probably **repeated high-level oscillations, leaning towards upward pushes followed by digestion**, so avoid chasing highs or bottom-fishing lightly in the short term.

In summary:
**Precious metals** are likely to continue **digesting the pullback** this week (gold more resilient, silver weaker);
**Crude oil** is likely to **initially decline then rebound or experience high volatility**, with the direction entirely dependent on the next round of news and developments in the Middle East.

In such an extremely geopolitically driven market, technical indicators are almost useless; **news and risk event windows** are the main drivers. It’s recommended to keep positions very light, closely monitor statements from Iran/US/Israel, and the actual recovery of Strait of Hormuz shipping.