The shape of U.S. "re-inflation" pressures amid the Middle East upheaval

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Since the end of February, the situation in the Middle East has changed dramatically, causing a surge in global oil prices and a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields. Since February 2026, the situation in Iran has rapidly deteriorated, escalating from diplomatic tensions to military conflict. On February 28, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed. On the same day, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict is ongoing, and the short-term outlook remains highly uncertain. The geopolitical conflict has caused major shocks in global markets, with Brent crude oil prices soaring from $70 per barrel at the end of January to over $90 per barrel. Market-wise, in February, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined due to safe-haven flows, but in early March, it began to reflect the surge in oil prices. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations also adjusted downward as the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded.

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