Breaking in Iraq! Two oil tankers attacked! Operations completely halted!

The Iran situation continues to impact global markets!

Oil prices surged again, reigniting concerns about inflation. On the morning of March 12, Japanese and South Korean stock markets both fell by over 1% at one point. As of press time, the Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.78%, and the KOSPI index in South Korea fell 0.25%. Additionally, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.18%, and the Malaysian KLCI index decreased 0.51%. Major European and U.S. stock index futures also fell sharply. Currently, Dow futures are down 0.87%, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are both close to a 0.70% decline. European STOXX 50 futures fell 0.65%, and Germany’s DAX futures declined 0.80%.

Regarding the latest Iran developments, early on the 12th local time, two foreign oil tankers were attacked within Iraqi territorial waters. Subsequently, reports indicated that Iraq’s oil ports have fully ceased operations. These events again pushed oil prices higher, with WTI and Brent crude futures both surging over 8% intraday, currently maintaining gains above 6%.

On March 11, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. is in a “favorable position” in the war against Iran and will focus on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said the U.S. knows where Iran’s “secret organizations” are and that they are being closely monitored. Additionally, according to Xinhua citing U.S. media on the 11th, the FBI recently warned that Iran might launch drone attacks on California on the U.S. West Coast to retaliate against U.S. military actions against Iran.

Two tankers attacked, oil prices sharply rise

According to CCTV News, early on the 12th local time, officials at Iraq’s southern ports reported that two foreign oil tankers were attacked and set on fire within Iraqi waters. The attack occurred at Umm Qasr port, located about 50 kilometers south of the southern Iraqi port city of Basra, on the western coast of Zubayr Bay. Preliminary investigations suggest that a speedboat loaded with explosives carried out the attack.

Saad Ma’an, head of the security media center under the Iraqi Joint Operations Command, confirmed early on the 12th that the attack resulted in one death, and 38 crew members have been rescued. The statement said the Iraqi government has deployed six ships to rescue the attacked vessels, and search and rescue operations for the missing are ongoing. The attack on the two tankers infringes on Iraqi sovereignty.

These events again drove oil prices higher. Early today, WTI crude futures surged over 8%, breaking through $94 per barrel intraday; Brent crude futures also rose over 8%, reaching a high of $99.54 per barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy route, carrying about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. The current tensions in the Middle East have caused shipping through the Strait to nearly come to a halt.

Early on the 12th, Iran’s Central Command of the armed forces, spokesperson Hatam Amria, stated that the Strait of Hormuz is unquestionably under Iran’s control.

On March 11, Trump reiterated that the U.S. is in a “favorable position” in the war against Iran and will focus on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. He also said the U.S. knows where Iran’s “secret organizations” are and that they are being closely monitored.

Earlier this week, Trump mentioned in an interview that he is “considering occupying” the Strait of Hormuz.

Although member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, analysts believe that resolving the passage issues in the Strait of Hormuz is key; otherwise, measures are only “band-aids.”

Consolar Bank’s chief market analyst, Jorgen Stantz, said, “It is now crucial to restore oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This is vital for oil and natural gas supplies. The market has already anticipated this, with the International Energy Agency’s move to release strategic reserves. But beyond that, we need to address the root cause—namely, the current bottleneck in the Strait—this is key to ensuring long-term market recovery.”

Robert Lenny, head of commodities research at Westpac Bank, stated, “With the conflict dragging on indefinitely, daily production shutdowns continue to grow, and the strait is effectively blocked. We maintain our view that Brent crude will enter a higher range of $90 to $110 per barrel next week.”

Iranian ambassador: Iran’s new Supreme Leader injured in February 28 airstrike

According to CCTV News, on March 11, Iran’s ambassador to Cyprus, Ali Reza Salarian, said in an interview that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Moojtabar Khamenei, was injured in the U.S. and Israel’s airstrike on Iran on February 28.

Salarians also revealed that during that airstrike, Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, and Moojtabar was present at the time.

Earlier, Yousuf Pezeshkian, son of Iran’s President Puzhiziyan, posted on social media that Iran’s Supreme Leader Moojtabar Khamenei is “safe.”

Yousuf Puzhiziyan said, “I heard Moojtabar was injured. I have asked friends who are in contact with him.”

Lebanese Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem congratulated Moojtabar Khamenei on his election as Iran’s Supreme Leader and pledged allegiance to his leadership.

According to Xinhua, early on the 12th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the completion of the 40th wave of the “Real Commitment-4” operation, conducting joint operations with Hezbollah against Israeli targets and U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Israel subsequently announced a “large-scale airstrike” on Tehran.

An Israeli senior defense official said this was the first time since the large-scale military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran that Iran and Hezbollah launched a coordinated attack on Israel. The Times of Israel reported that the Israel Defense Forces said there was no intelligence indicating that Iran and Hezbollah firing simultaneously was a coordinated operation.