#沃什出任美联储主席提名受阻 Wosh's Path to the Federal Reserve Faces Obstacles, Probability of Rate Cuts Before June Decreases

On March 11th, local time, U.S. President Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Wosh, met with key Republican Senator Tom Tillis in an attempt to persuade him to drop his opposition to the nomination. However, Tillis explicitly stated that he would not support any Fed nominee, including Wosh, until certain investigations are concluded.
According to recent reports from CNBC, Kevin Wosh, who is expected to succeed as Fed Chair, may face a dilemma between fighting inflation and supporting the labor market. Wosh is 55 years old, with a bachelor’s degree in public policy from Stanford University and a J.D. from Harvard University. After graduation, he worked at Morgan Stanley and joined the U.S. National Economic Council in 2002. From 2006 to 2011, he served as a Federal Reserve Board member and is currently a visiting researcher at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. On January 30, 2026, President Trump officially nominated Wosh to succeed Jerome Powell, who is set to step down in May, as Fed Chair.
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has fluctuated in tandem with soaring oil prices, and market expectations for significant rate cuts by the Fed have slowed. Fed official Harker recently stated that ongoing energy shocks could push inflation higher, and if inflation fails to cool, the Fed may need to consider raising interest rates.
Recently, Fed official Harker indicated that the current rate policy is likely to remain unchanged for quite some time. She pointed out that the Fed’s policy stance is favorable for effectively addressing the dual challenges of inflation and employment; inflation remains “too high,” with widespread pressure; and the Fed will continue to be committed to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released February non-farm payroll data, showing an unexpected decline of 92,000 jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. This reversed the previous optimistic outlook on the labor market’s stability and reignited concerns about a quiet deterioration in the workforce. Analysts said that this surprising report dealt a blow to the seemingly recovering labor market. However, amid the ongoing inflation concerns and escalating geopolitical conflicts, the likelihood of rate cuts in March remains low.
According to the latest data from CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 0.6%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 13.9%, with an 86.1% chance of no change, and a 0.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. The probability of a 25 basis point cut by June is 37.5%.