Open Source Securities: Real Estate in 2026 Should Focus on Three Main Themes

CryptocurrencySniper

2026-03-12 02:55:13

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Open Source Securities points out that by 2026, the real estate sector should focus on three main themes: First, valuation recovery at the policy bottom, with clear signals of policy shift from central and first-tier cities at the start of the year, and a retreat in new construction and land acquisition indicating accelerated supply-side cleanup; Second, focusing on the “good houses” quality premium line, where developers with mature product systems and high-end product lines will enjoy sales premiums and gross margin advantages brought by quality differences; Third, drawing on Hong Kong’s “industry—population—rent” transmission pathway, paying attention to the asset allocation demand driven by the recovery of rental yields in core cities.

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[Real Estate & Construction] Adversity as a Hidden Opportunity

Approaching industry bottom: The first issue of Qiushi magazine in 2026 strongly emphasizes “improving and stabilizing real estate market expectations,” signaling a clear policy shift and guidance for industry improvement. During this downward cycle, the decline in new construction area (down 74.1% from the peak) has been greater than that of sales area (down 50.9%), with new construction showing some overshoot, indicating a more pronounced supply-side cleanup. Looking at rental yields and loan rates, currently, the rental yield for second-hand residential properties in core cities is roughly between 1.6% and 2.0%, approaching the ten-year government bond yield.

We believe that by 2026, the real estate sector should focus on three main themes: First, valuation recovery at the policy bottom, with clear signals of policy shift from central and first-tier cities at the start of the year, and a retreat in new construction and land acquisition indicating accelerated supply-side cleanup; Second, focusing on the “good houses” quality premium line, where developers with mature product systems and high-end product lines will enjoy sales premiums and gross margin advantages brought by quality differences; Third, drawing on Hong Kong’s “industry—population—rent” transmission pathway, paying attention to the asset allocation demand driven by the recovery of rental yields in core cities.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic downturn, real estate companies’ financing progress below expectations, increased industry competition.

(Source: Yicai)

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