# A Discussion About Gold

Gold has declined over 24% from $5,400 in late February this year to a low of $4,098, presenting a "roller coaster" market. In late March, there was a sharp crash (a record single-week decline), and now prices are recovering rapidly. I mentioned during a previous live stream that as long as it breaks below the $5,000 level, you can short freely. The drop to $4,098 represents an exaggerated decline for gold, especially considering people were still buying gold above $5,000...

Many people don't understand the underlying logic. The main factors behind this round of rapid gold decline are:

1. The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift, completely destroying rate-cut expectations
2. Strong US dollar + surging US Treasury yields
3. Middle East conflict (US-Iran war) driving crude oil prices higher
4. Long leverage accumulation, primarily liquidations

These events caused the gold market crash and liquidated numerous long positions.

From the current market perspective, the Federal Reserve will likely maintain high interest rates plus one modest rate cut expectation. Gold will experience volatility in the $4,300-$4,800 range. However, I believe once prices approach $4,000 again, you can gradually start buying. Federal Reserve policy is the largest "short catalyst" for gold.