Guolian Minsheng Securities: V-shaped Recovery of Domestic and External Demand Imminent, Emphasis on Construction Machinery Layout Opportunities

CryptoTimes Financial APP has learned that Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that both domestic and international demand in the construction machinery sector are expected to resonate in 2026, focusing on leading stocks. In Q3 2025, the construction machinery sector’s revenue was 64.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with net profit attributable to parent company of 4.92 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. This is mainly due to a moderate recovery in domestic demand and sustained growth in external demand, leading to improvements in revenue and profitability of the sector. In 2026, domestic and international demand are expected to resonate.

Guolian Minsheng Securities’ main points are as follows:

Domestic: Overall positive growth for excavators and “non-excavators,” with a clear bottoming-up trend

During this downward cycle, sales of medium and large excavators declined by over 70% over three years, approaching the decline seen in the previous five-year cycle, and are fully bottoming out in 2024-2025.

(1) Excavators: In 2025, domestic sales growth for excavators reached +18%, achieving significant growth. However, due to weaker-than-expected real estate and mining investments, and limited elasticity in infrastructure investment, the domestic sales structure is less favorable (small excavators > medium > large). 2026 is expected to be a major year for domestic excavator updates and replacements, supporting long-term logic, with a clear upward trend in domestic sales.

(2) Non-excavators: Since the second half of 2025, sales growth in “non-excavator” categories has generally turned positive, with loaders, truck cranes, crawler cranes, and truck-mounted cranes all achieving over 20% growth. Crawler cranes, driven by strong downstream wind power installation demand, have doubled their monthly growth rate. The report believes that domestic “excavator” + “non-excavator” sectors are entering a recovery phase, with domestic sales structure in 2026 significantly better than in 2025.

Overseas: Double-digit growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with Europe and America turning positive

In the context of weak domestic real estate and infrastructure investments, overseas markets may become a key battleground for domestic OEMs. In 2025, exports of excavators are approximately 117,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, accounting for about 50% of total sales (already a significant share); moreover, export growth favors large excavators > medium > small, with higher profitability. In 2024, China’s share of the global market was about 11%, with vast overseas market potential. According to KHL data, the four major Chinese OEMs’ revenue share among the top 50 overseas OEMs is only 14%, indicating significant room for growth. As export growth to Asia, Africa, and Latin America maintains double-digit increases in 2025, and Europe and America turn positive, along with North America entering a rate-cutting cycle and manufacturing returning, overseas demand is expected to remain optimistic.

Risk warning: Domestic demand recovery may fall short of expectations; overseas expansion may underperform; industry competition may intensify.