Crude Oil's Shocking Jump

Questions about AI · Contradictions Between Trump and Iran: How Will Market Confidence Change?

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

The market has shifted from “The world is going to blow up” to “It might not blow up after all.” But we’re still far from “It’s over.”

After 7:00 PM Beijing time, global markets made a shocking jump:

• Brent crude oil plummeted by 14%, hitting a low of around $96;

• Gold prices surged by $200;

• U.S. stock futures recovered all of last Friday’s losses within an hour.

Before this, Trump stated that the U.S. had engaged in productive talks to fully resolve hostilities in the Middle East, and “delayed” all strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days.

Trump’s statement essentially told the market: “Disaster may not happen (at least for now).”

This is the first good news since the Iran conflict, and three things have simultaneously reversed:

War risk premiums are beginning to fade;

Panic over supply disruptions is easing;

Traders are starting to close positions (funds previously betting on price increases are retreating).

We see oil prices not “falling,” but “reversing panic premiums.”

But this doesn’t mean the problem is solved; it’s just a pause in escalation. The energy system is already damaged, and the “psychological risk” at Hormuz remains. These real-world constraints still exist. Currently, the market is in a state of “shock and awe” equilibrium.

Later, Iran’s state news agency refuted Trump’s claim of “productive dialogue,” stating, “There has been no direct contact with Trump, not even through intermediaries.”

Before today, it was “panic pricing”; today, it’s “emotional recovery”; and in the future, we will enter the third phase — “realistic pricing.” When will oil tankers resume operations? Is Hormuz truly open? Does Iran still have countermeasures? Once these uncertainties clear, prices will stabilize.