Chuangchuang Futures: Geopolitical Tensions Reinforce Production Cut Expectations, PX Futures Adjust at High Levels

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-26T04:09:42+00:00

On March 20, China's CFR PX price fell to $1,207/ton, with international crude oil prices showing strength due to geopolitical tensions. PX load rates remained stable, but naphtha prices surged, potentially leading to PX load reductions. Although downstream demand showed seasonal improvement, high raw material costs dampened factory production enthusiasm. Market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions intensified, with short-term PX futures prices expected to remain firm.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-26 04:09:42

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Spot Market: On March 20, CFR China PX price was $1,207/ton, down $57/ton from the previous trading day. On the morning of March 23, Asian PX May and September swap negotiations increased by $50/ton.
In terms of costs, on March 21, Trump demanded Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else launch strikes against “various power plants” and destroy them. Iran threatened to retaliate against US and Israeli energy facilities. The geopolitical situation may further escalate, and international crude oil prices remain strong.
Regarding supply, last week Asian PX load decreased, while domestic PX load remained stable. Due to geopolitical factors, naphtha prices surged significantly, compressing the PX-naphtha spread. Additionally, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may further disrupt oil supply, and PX load may still have room to decline later.
On the demand side, downstream polyester and terminal weaving are seasonally picking up, but high raw material prices are impacting polyester production, dampening factory enthusiasm. Some terminals lack new orders, leading to a decline in factory operating rates and visible negative feedback from downstream.
In summary, last weekend’s escalating geopolitical tensions increased concerns about oil supply disruptions causing further refinery cutbacks, leading to a broad rally in the energy chemical sector. In the short term, PX futures are expected to remain relatively strong, with attention to geopolitical developments, crude oil price trends, and changes in upstream and downstream plant operations. (First Capital Futures)

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