10-minute straight surge to the daily limit! Seven major positive catalysts hit all at once! The entire sector is being "driven up" in a vertical rush!

The market rotation is very fast!

Today (March 26), it was the turn for lithium batteries to explode. Lithium battery concept stocks surged and pulled higher, with Dadongnan hitting the limit up within 10 minutes of opening. Rongjie Co. hit the daily limit, making three consecutive limit-ups, Haike Xinyuan surged 20%, and Huasheng Lithium, Zhongyi Technology, Zhongrui Co., and Shida Shenghua experienced major breakthroughs.

Some analysts point out that the strong fundamentals of lithium batteries continue to support the hot trend, with demand and prices expected to accelerate upward from April to May. Among them, seven major positive factors support the entire sector’s strength.

Lithium batteries explode across the board

On March 26, lithium carbonate futures suddenly surged, triggering a major rally in lithium battery concept stocks. The battery ETF soared over 2.5% at one point.

On the evening of March 23, news emerged that Zimbabwe had upgraded restrictions on the export of lithium concentrates. Although Zimbabwe’s government had previously planned to fully ban concentrate exports by 2027, it suddenly announced an indefinite suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports at the end of February, and the situation has continued to escalate. According to local authoritative media, the ban has caused cash flow crises for small and medium-sized local mining companies.

Zimbabwe holds an important position in the global lithium resource supply. Data shows that by 2025, Zimbabwe’s lithium resource production will account for about 10% of the world’s total lithium resources. Almost all of Zimbabwe’s lithium ore and concentrates are exported to China. In 2025, China imported a total of 6.209 million tons of spodumene, including 1.191 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, accounting for 19.2%, equivalent to about 110,000 tons of lithium carbonate.

Due to previous systemic market declines, the entire lithium battery sector lacked capital for speculation. However, in the past two trading days, as the market warmed up, many funds have paid attention. As the weekend approaches, the overall market sentiment may turn cautious again. The speculative funds in the lithium battery sector could also create a siphoning effect.

Seven major positive factors arrive

Zheshang Securities believes that in this cycle: on the demand side, energy storage battery demand exceeds expectations, and commercial vehicle demand is expected to continue releasing power battery needs; on the supply side, upstream material capacity is being cleared, the competitive environment is gradually improving, and prices are expected to rebound.

According to market professionals’ summaries, the main positive outlooks now and in the future include seven points:

1. Domestic auto sales fell 26% year-on-year, but the “single vehicle battery capacity” increased by over 20%, offsetting the impact of declining sales. “Single vehicle battery capacity” is a fundamental technical indicator in the new energy vehicle industry, referring to the total stored electrical energy of the power battery installed in a vehicle.

2. Export expectations are expected to grow by 50%, but actual growth may far exceed this, fully compensating for the weaker domestic car market expectations.

3. Heavy trucks are already expected to outperform expectations. The more diesel prices rise, the more pronounced the expectations become. Heavy trucks are used for commercial transportation, and their strongest attribute is economy.

4. Analysts point out that the auto market will not be worse from April to May. New car launches and rising oil prices are positive for new energy, plus export expectations suggest a market recovery.

5. Lithium battery production from April to May is expected to grow month-on-month, with April showing growth unprecedented in the past four years, even amid expectations of rush orders in March, indicating very strong demand for lithium.

6. If Zimbabwe’s issues are not resolved, mineral imports will decrease starting in April, and lithium carbonate prices may accelerate their rise. Smelting plants are already feeling the pressure of mineral shortages.

7. The demand for energy storage is increasing. The growth phase of energy storage is still not widely recognized. When stability is achieved, it will be time to increase positions.

Currently, the main narrative remains that, against the backdrop of soaring oil prices, energy security has become a widespread concern. New energy sources (wind, solar, storage) are becoming essential options for countries. It is in this context that lithium battery materials, after coal, have experienced an explosion.

Dongcai Illustration · Key Insights

(Source: Securities Times)