【Iran Crisis】BlackRock President Warns Investors Underestimating Iran War Risk; Even if "War Ends Tomorrow," Oil Prices Could Surge to $150

The Iran war enters its fourth week. BlackRock President Rob Kapito warns that investors may be underestimating the risks brought by the Iran conflict, suggesting that even if it ends quickly, it could still pressure economic growth and push up inflation.

Rob Kapito stated that even if the war ends soon, economic growth could be impacted by as much as two percentage points, and inflation could rise by a similar margin. Even if “the war is announced to be over tomorrow,” oil prices could still surge to $150 per barrel, as supply chains remain disrupted and take time to return to full capacity.

He said:

“If this chaos lasts a week, six months, or even a year, what does it mean for the companies I hold? My biggest concern is that people are not taking this seriously; they are just blindly assuming (there will be optimistic outcomes).”

Rob Kapito also pointed out that in past conflicts like this, investors tend to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries and gold, while shorting stocks. However, the current market reaction to the war is inconsistent—stocks are only slightly down, while gold and Treasuries are falling.

Although the Iran war could lead to slower growth and higher inflation, he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, highlighting themes like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and private markets as key drivers for investors.