US-Iran Negotiations "Rashomon" Roils Global Markets: Oil Prices Plunge Over 10%, US Stocks Rally 600 Points, Precious Metals Stage Sharp V-Shaped Swings

What strategic intentions are hidden behind the Roshomon-like back-and-forth of the US-Iran negotiations?

On March 23, global capital markets were almost entirely driven by geopolitical news throughout the day: from Trump suddenly signaling a dialogue with Iran to Iran officially denying negotiations repeatedly. Bullish and bearish sentiments switched multiple times within 24 hours, with extreme volatility in commodities, equity markets, and precious metals.

US stocks rebounded across the board, tech leading the rally, Chinese concept stocks recovering

As Trump signaled a “delay of 5 days before striking Iran’s power plants,” market risk appetite quickly improved. The three major US indices all closed higher, with the Dow rising 1.38% (+631 points), briefly surging over 1,000 points during the day, the S&P 500 up 1.15%, and the Nasdaq up 1.38%, erasing several days of previous declines. All 11 sectors of the S&P advanced, led by Consumer Discretionary with a 2.46% gain.

Tech giants performed strongly, with Tesla up over 3%, Amazon, Nvidia, and Apple each rising more than 1%, and Broadcom jumping 4% on chip demand expectations. Airlines and cruise stocks sensitive to oil prices soared—United Airlines and Norwegian Cruise Line up over 5%.

Chinese concept stocks also recovered, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index ending its four-day losing streak. XPeng and NIO each gained over 7%, Alibaba nearly 3%. Market analysts noted that falling oil prices eased inflation fears, but the sustainability of the rebound still depends on substantive geopolitical progress.

Oil prices plummeted 10%, gold prices experienced a rollercoaster

Trump’s “dialogue” statement directly impacted the crude oil market. However, Iran quickly denied negotiations, calling it “market manipulation and false news,” causing oil prices to fluctuate repeatedly during the day.

By the close, NY WTI crude futures plunged 10.28% to $88.13 per barrel, Brent crude futures fell 10.92% below the $100 mark to $99.94 per barrel, with intraday declines exceeding 14% for both.

Gold markets also saw a rollercoaster, with spot gold breaking through $4,400, $4,300, $4,200, and $4,100 levels within the day. After touching below $4,100, prices quickly rebounded, ending above $4,400, with a daily range exceeding $300. Analysts believe that short-term gold bottoming remains unclear, and further observation of oil prices, rate hike expectations, and dollar liquidity is needed.

US-Iran standoff resembles a “Roshomon,” with military movements brewing

Trump claimed “key points of an agreement have been formed” and hinted at Iranian leadership involvement in dialogue, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry and Parliament Speaker Larijani repeatedly denied, emphasizing “no contact with the US.” Amid conflicting statements, military actions continue to escalate: thousands of US Marines are scheduled to arrive in the Middle East on the 27th, and the Pentagon is considering deploying the 82nd Airborne to seize Iran’s oil hub on Hormuz Island. Iran’s military announced it has “effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz” and warned it will use “all means” to ensure security.

Goldman Sachs traders pointed out that Trump’s “tension-then-delay-then-limit” strategy aims to create leverage in negotiations, but responses from Tehran via friendly nations show that both sides’ bottom lines remain difficult to reconcile. Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Larkin said, “The market is awakened by potential positive signals, but sustainability depends on real progress.”

Stagflation trading emerges, Fed policy faces dilemma

The battle between oil prices and rate cut expectations has become the main market theme. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that if inflation rebounds, rate hikes are possible, but CME’s “Fed Watch” shows the probability of a December rate hike has fallen to 16%. Dongwu Securities analysts noted that if the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts more than two months, oil prices could spike again, potentially leading the Fed to cut rates to zero for the year. The current market logic is shifting from safe-haven to stagflation trading, benefiting crude oil, military metals (like tungsten and molybdenum), while equities come under pressure.

As of early Asian trading on the 24th Beijing time, US crude and Brent rebounded slightly, gold hovered around $4,430. Markets await the next moves on the US military deployment and Iran’s so-called “surprise actions” on the 27th. The geopolitical game that has captured global attention is far from over.