Master Report | Morgan Stanley Cuts Pop Mart Target Price to 278 Yuan

SighingCashier · 2026-03-26T05:31:08+00:00

Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for Pop Mart by 14%, reducing it from 325 yuan to 278 yuan, while maintaining an "overweight" rating. Although forecasting slower overseas growth, the firm believes the stock is undervalued and expects future benefits from the expansion of the global IP collectibles market and business adjustments. Morgan Stanley also lowered its sales and earnings estimates, but remains positive on the physical retail store model.

SighingCashier

2026-03-26 05:31:08

Abstract generation in progress

Morgan Stanley has cut the target price of Pop Mart (09992) by 14%, from HKD 325 to HKD 278, maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The forecasted P/E ratio has been lowered from 26x to 23x to reflect slower growth in overseas markets.

The most bullish target price has been reduced from HKD 485 to HKD 419; the most bearish target price has fallen from HKD 146 to HKD 129. However, Morgan Stanley points out that the group’s current stock price implies a 14x P/E ratio in 2026, which they believe is undervalued. They expect the company to benefit from increased market share in the global IP collectibles market, and that operational adjustments should make the group more competitive in 2027-2028.

Morgan Stanley states that last year’s Q4 sales and this year’s guidance disappointed investors, leading to a sharp 22% drop in the stock price yesterday. They have lowered earnings forecasts for this year and next by about 4%, citing slowing overseas sales growth, but believe that physical store sales models remain effective.

The bank has also lowered its revenue forecasts for this year and next by 4% and 5%, to RMB 45.882 billion and RMB 55.011 billion, respectively. It expects sales to increase by about 50% in the first half of this year, slowing to 5-10% in the second half. Morgan Stanley has also raised its earnings forecasts for this year and next by 3% and 4%, to RMB 14.801 billion and RMB 17.736 billion.

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