[Iran Crisis] BlackRock CEO warns investors underestimate the risk of war with Iran; even if "war ends tomorrow," oil prices could still surge to $150.

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-26T06:06:32+00:00

The Iran war enters its fourth week, with BlackRock President Rob Kapito warning investors to underestimate the risk of war, pointing out that even if the war ends quickly, economic growth and inflation could face shocks. He is concerned about the market's blind optimism regarding the consequences of the war and notes that past investment behaviors after conflicts differ from current market reactions. He remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, believing that artificial intelligence and private markets will become key investment focuses.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-26 06:06:32

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The Iran war enters its fourth week. BlackRock President Rob Kapito warns that investors may be underestimating the risks brought by the Iran conflict, suggesting that even if it ends quickly, it could still pressure economic growth and push up inflation.

Rob Kapito states that even if the war ends soon, economic growth could be impacted by as much as two percentage points, and inflation could rise by a similar margin. Even if “the war is announced to end tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150 per barrel, as supply chains disrupted will take time to return to full capacity.

He said:

“If this chaos lasts a week, six months, or even a year, what does it mean for the companies I hold? My biggest concern is that people are not taking this seriously; they are just blindly assuming (there will be optimistic outcomes).”

Rob Kapito also pointed out that in past conflicts like this, investors tend to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries, gold, and short the stock market. However, the current market reaction to the war is inconsistent—stocks only dip slightly, while gold and Treasuries decline.

Although the Iran war could lead to slower growth and rising inflation, he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, highlighting themes like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and private markets as key drivers for investors.

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