Shouchuang Futures: Cost increase limited, soybean meal opens higher then pulls back

Today, domestic soybean meal opened higher and then fell back, closing slightly lower. Overnight, U.S. soybeans rose modestly, and the market was once boosted by crude oil surges, but future export uncertainties limited the gains. Market concerns about potential war with Iran may impact Trump’s unilateral plan to visit China at the end of the month, creating significant uncertainty over China’s additional soybean purchases from the U.S. However, there are reports that Bessent and China’s Premier will hold talks in Paris in mid-October. Additionally, Brazil’s basis and premium fell by 5-9 cents per bushel overnight, significantly offsetting the cost support from U.S. soybean gains. Today, domestic spot prices slightly declined, remaining in a weak trend. The market expects ample soybean crush supplies in March and declining spot costs. Overall, we expect limited short-term upside for domestic soybean meal, but short-term costs remain relatively strong, and domestic supply rhythm is uncertain. With no release of state reserves after the holiday, short-term market sentiment has little support, so it is not advisable to short immediately. (First Capital Futures)