Greenland Group Chairman Zhang Yuliang: This year is a critical year for the real estate market. After fully stabilizing the decline, it will move towards healthy development.

Reporter from Meiri｜Zhang Rui Editor from Meiri｜Wei Wenyí

From March 22 to 23, the China Development High-Level Forum 2026 Annual Conference was held at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing.

During the conference, Zhang Yuliang, Chairman and President of Greenland Group, was interviewed on-site by a reporter from Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as “Meiri Reporter”).

Zhang Yuliang stated in the interview that over the past period, influenced by multiple factors, China’s real estate industry has undergone a deep adjustment. The market supply and demand relationship has changed significantly, with both sales volume and prices experiencing substantial declines, which has had a considerable impact on the real economy, financial security, and residents’ household wealth.

In response, both central and local governments have undertaken extensive efforts to stabilize the real estate market, achieving certain results. “Since the beginning of this year, some large cities’ real estate markets have shown signs of stabilization after deep adjustments.”

Talking about real estate: The turning point depends on policy strength and market response

Zhang Yuliang believes that overall, China’s real estate industry’s deep adjustment has not yet ended. The majority of cities still face sluggish markets and declining asset prices, and these issues have not been fundamentally reversed. More efforts are needed to push the market toward stabilization.

When asked whether the real estate turning point might occur this year or next, Zhang Yuliang admitted that it depends on policy strength and market response. Currently, leading cities need to shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing market expectations. For example, in Shanghai, recent policies called the “Shanghai Seven Measures” relaxed many home purchase restrictions, and market activity has clearly increased. “Two years ago, the monthly transaction volume of second-hand homes in Shanghai was about 20,000 units. After the new policies, it’s expected to reach 30,000 units in March this year. This means old homes are being replaced and new demand is entering the market, which in turn positively affects first-hand home transactions.”

In Zhang Yuliang’s view, if financial and tax policies are properly implemented, and residents’ income and wealth can be stabilized, the real estate market in leading cities like Shanghai can quickly stabilize. Once these cities stabilize, provincial capitals and prefecture-level cities will follow suit. This way, the entire real estate market can stabilize, and the bottom formation will be in place.

“If the bottom of the real estate market can be reached this year, then a healthy market will be maintained with annual new housing increments of 5 to 6 trillion yuan and second-hand housing increments of 8 to 9 trillion yuan. Regarding affordable housing, the government is making efforts. Currently, the repurchase cost is relatively low (60% to 70% of market price), providing support for new residents and ordinary citizens.” Zhang Yuliang said that once both the market and the保障 (security) side stabilize, the real estate industry can continue to play a significant role in the national economy.

Regarding how to further promote the stabilization and recovery of the property market, Zhang Yuliang believes that on one hand, policies need to be continuously strengthened by introducing a series of supportive administrative and financial measures to create a favorable environment, further improve and stabilize market expectations, release and enhance market purchasing power, and increase market activity; on the other hand, real estate companies must “reborn from the ashes,” focusing more on innovation-driven transformation and development, forging a new path in the new era to promote steady and healthy industry growth.

Talking about transformation: Long-term optimism for new energy vehicle export growth trend

Energy supply security and export of new energy vehicles are key new tracks for Greenland. Against the backdrop of tense Middle East tensions and soaring energy prices, will these sectors face major opportunities?

In response, Zhang Yuliang told Meiri Reporter: “From a profit perspective, these two new industries are our new growth curves. We believe there is great potential and a solid foundation, and we have already laid out many points.”

Zhang Yuliang mentioned that in traditional energy, the company mainly undertakes coal supply security projects for people’s livelihoods and state-owned responsibilities. Through logistics and technological adjustments (such as blending 5000 kcal and 3000 kcal coal types), costs are significantly reduced, and energy efficiency is improved. “In the new energy field, we are also continuously exploring and investing.”

“Export of new energy vehicles has been a key focus for us since last year,” Zhang Yuliang said. “Chinese new energy vehicles account for over 50% of global incremental sales; recently, China’s exports of new energy passenger cars surpassed 50% of total passenger car exports for the first time. Last year, we mainly focused on the Middle East, and are also expanding into markets like Mexico, South America, and Southeast Asia.”

Zhang Yuliang said that the UAE is a rapidly growing market for new energy vehicles in the Middle East, and Chinese products have obvious advantages, with strong competitiveness and popularity among consumers. “We built a showcase center there, and after visiting, all merchants and distributors praised Chinese new energy vehicles—whether in quality, price, or service.”

He noted that, in the short term, the US-Israel-Iran conflicts do have some impact. Earlier this year, the company’s plan to build service and logistics centers in Dubai was hindered; at the end of February, vehicles worth 70 million yuan ordered by the company could not be shipped due to logistics disruptions. “But I believe this market is still there.”

In Zhang Yuliang’s view, the long-term growth trend of new energy vehicle exports is certain. Despite US restrictions, China’s trade continues to grow because: first, consumer willingness to buy remains unchanged, and cost-effective products always find a market; second, China’s supply chain and trade relationships with global companies are difficult to sever. Even with restrictions, Chinese companies can still go abroad, demonstrating strong resilience.

“China can export, and companies in those markets will help sell your products—that’s market forces at work,” Zhang Yuliang said. “Technological progress mainly involves reducing costs and increasing added value to improve competitiveness. The profit-seeking nature of markets will support global trade, so government intervention can only be temporary restrictions.”

Talking about stabilizing expectations: The core is stabilizing asset prices

Zhang Yuliang stated that entering the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s economy has seen many positive changes, and social expectations are gradually improving, with market confidence continuing to rise. However, due to complex domestic and international factors, many cyclical and structural issues are intertwined. Many primary enterprises still face operational difficulties, and residents’ wealth growth faces significant pressure. The weak expectations for China’s economic and social development have not been fundamentally reversed.

Therefore, Zhang Yuliang believes that multiple measures should be taken to further strengthen the positive outlook for economic recovery.

Specifically, policy efforts need to be intensified. On one hand, more measures conducive to stabilizing growth and expectations should be introduced based on actual conditions, while cautiously implementing policies that may have contractionary or suppressive effects. On the other hand, ensuring the effective implementation of policies is crucial, especially addressing the “temperature difference” between regions, to make a series of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting development precise and swift.

Second, stabilizing expectations hinges on stabilizing key matters, especially asset prices. Real estate is vital for stabilizing growth, social wealth, and livelihoods; the stock market is also critical as it broadens residents’ income channels from assets and allows people to share economic growth. These are core supports for stabilizing expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately grasp new developments and issues in the real estate and stock markets, and adopt more powerful and precise measures to continuously stabilize these markets.

Third, it is essential to establish correct views on government performance, prioritizing practical development efforts. Expectations are not automatic; they require effort to realize. An atmosphere of hard work should be fostered, creating a societal effort toward development.

Fourth, accelerating innovation and transformation is necessary to create more of the “New Three” (new energy, new technology, new industries), forming a strong synergy for China’s economy to move toward new and better growth. Scientific and technological innovation is the fundamental driving force. Global competition relies on technology; advanced technology boosts productivity and export opportunities. Currently, China’s large-scale exports are possible because of low costs, good technology, and practicality. Despite administrative barriers and protectionism, market demand and consumer preferences cannot be stopped. Even with tariffs, Chinese products remain affordable and high-quality. With China’s low production costs, high labor productivity, and significant technological progress, breakthroughs in fields like innovative medicine and green energy could annually generate new “Three” sectors, greatly enhancing international competitiveness.

Finally, entrepreneurial spirit is the most endogenous driver of the economy. Promoting entrepreneurial spirit vigorously, and achieving more landmark breakthroughs, will boost market confidence. Without entrepreneurs and enterprise efforts, technological progress and social prosperity are impossible.

Disclaimer: The content and data in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before use. Operate at your own risk.

Cover image source: Provided by interviewee