Is the peace expectation real or fake? Bitcoin stands at the 70,000 "breaking point"

Today, the overall cryptocurrency market shows a pattern of rebound encountering resistance and consolidating with volatility. Although geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, providing the market with a breather, technical pressure and macro uncertainties still suppress upward potential. Bitcoin has barely held the $70,000 level, while Ethereum struggles below a key resistance level, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears.

1. Macro and Capital Flows: Divergence and Suppression
From capital flow perspective, market sentiment is clearly divided:

Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs ended three consecutive days of net outflows, recording a net inflow of $167 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing the majority, indicating institutional buying during BTC dips.

Ethereum ETF Outflows: In contrast, Ethereum ETFs have experienced four consecutive days of net outflows, showing that institutions are more cautious about ETH.

On the macro level, pressure remains. The rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the strengthening dollar continue to weigh on risk assets. Additionally, the US regulatory draft proposal to ban interest payments on stablecoins has become a major negative factor hanging over the market, potentially impacting liquidity in the DeFi ecosystem.

2. Bitcoin (BTC): Repeated Battles at the $70,000 Threshold
Price Performance
As of today, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates above $70,000, down slightly by about 1% from yesterday. Although it has rebounded roughly 4% this week, the upward momentum has clearly weakened, hesitating below the resistance zone of $71,500–$72,150.

Technical Indicator Analysis
MACD: The daily MACD lines remain below zero, though the negative area has narrowed, indicating weakening bearish pressure. However, the fast line has not yet crossed above the slow line to form a golden cross. This suggests the current movement is a corrective rebound after a decline, not a trend reversal.

KDJ: The daily KDJ shows a budding golden cross at low levels, but the 4-hour J value has rapidly risen above 80 into overbought territory, hinting at a short-term technical correction.

Key Levels
Resistance: 71,500 – 72,500 (50-day EMA and previous high zone).

Support: 69,000 – 69,500 (psychological level and upward trend line).

3. Ethereum (ETH): Struggling More Than the Market
Price Performance
Ethereum today consolidates between $2,145 and $2,185, showing clear weakness compared to Bitcoin. Although it followed the rebound this week, it faced significant resistance at the 50-day EMA near $2,195–$2,200 and failed to break through effectively.

Technical Indicator Analysis
MACD: The daily MACD shows a slight positive but flat trend, with the fast and slow lines close below zero, indicating a weak balance between bulls and bears. Compared to Bitcoin, ETH’s MACD structure is weaker, with no clear bottoming golden cross yet.

On-chain Data: Trading volume is moderate to high, suggesting large funds may be accumulating around $2,150, but there is also notable selling pressure near $2,200.

Key Levels
Resistance: 2,195 – 2,200 (50-day EMA resistance zone).

Support: 2,100 – 2,120 (short-term support), 2,000 (psychological level).

4. Market Signals and Summary
1. Divergence and Caution
While Bitcoin remains resilient, altcoins have not followed with a significant rally. This is not typical of a full bull breakout; funds have not rotated from BTC into high-risk altcoins, indicating a defensive market stance.

2. Geopolitical “Disconnection”
The market is pricing in a “peace” scenario due to easing tensions between the US and Iran, but official negotiations have not been confirmed. Oil prices have fallen but remain high. If peace expectations are disproved, the market could face a rapid reversal.

3. Trading Strategy
Current market is a technical rebound after a sharp decline. Caution is advised; chasing highs is not recommended.

BTC: Watch the effectiveness of the $69,000 support. If broken, it could test the $67,000–$68,000 zone.

ETH: Monitor whether $2,100 can hold. A break below may lead to a search for support around $2,000.

Until the daily MACD forms a clear golden cross, the current rebound should be viewed as a range-bound consolidation, with the market awaiting further guidance from tonight’s non-farm payroll and PCE inflation data.