Afternoon collective plunge! New developments in Iran situation! Trump's latest statement!

Global investors are closely watching developments in Iran!

This afternoon, U.S. stock futures plunged again. As of 1:30 PM, Nasdaq futures fell 0.43%, Dow futures and S&P 500 futures declined 0.37% and 0.40%, respectively. In Asia-Pacific markets, the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and ChiNext Index all dropped nearly 1%; the Nikkei 225 fell 0.72%, after rising nearly 0.90% earlier. Additionally, South Korea’s KOSPI declined 2.93%, Pakistan’s Karachi Index dropped 0.77%, and Thailand’s SET index fell 0.69%.

Gold and silver also tumbled. At the time of writing, COMEX gold futures declined 1.41%, silver futures fell 2.45%; spot gold and spot silver decreased 0.85% and 1.36%, respectively. Cryptocurrencies also collectively declined, with Bitcoin and Ethereum down over 1%, and Solana dropping more than 3%.

According to the latest news, the Israel Defense Forces announced on the 26th local time that they launched a series of large-scale strikes against infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. On the same day, Hezbollah in Lebanon claimed to have used multiple missiles to attack the Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters.

However, U.S. President Trump was reported to want to end the war quickly. According to Xinhua News Agency citing The Wall Street Journal on the 25th, President Trump recently told his advisors that he hopes to “quickly” end the Iran conflict, aiming to conclude hostilities within “the next few weeks.” The report said Trump told an advisor that the war has interfered with his efforts to push other priorities.

U.S. Central Command stated on the 25th local time that the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier continued flying operations targeting military targets inside Iran while operating in regional waters. Earlier, Iran’s military claimed that the Iranian Navy launched missiles at the Lincoln, “forcing it to change position.”

Meanwhile, Iran is seeking to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV News, early on the 26th local time, the chairman of Iran’s Islamic Parliament Civil Committee said, “We are seeking legislation that can legally safeguard Iran’s sovereignty, control, and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, while generating revenue through transit fees.”

Notably, Wall Street institutions are raising expectations of a U.S. recession, partly due to the Iran war and inflation risks.

Large-Scale Israeli Attacks on Iranian Infrastructure

According to CCTV News, on March 26th local time, the Israel Defense Forces announced they launched a series of large-scale strikes against infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran.

On the same day, Hezbollah issued a statement claiming to have used multiple missiles to attack the Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters in central Tel Aviv and an Israeli military intelligence facility in northern Tel Aviv.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told national television on the 25th that this war is neither Iran’s nor America’s, but Israel is pushing the U.S. into conflict.

Araghchi said Israel is the main driver of the war. The U.S.'s primary task is to ensure Israel’s security, with military deployments in the Middle East aimed at protecting Israel, even at the cost of sacrificing everything. Israel’s goal is to realize the “Greater Israel” plan, seeking territory from several regional countries.

He stated that the war reveals many facts: U.S. military bases in the region have not guaranteed the host countries’ security but have instead become sources of instability; when these countries are attacked, it is due to the presence of these bases.

According to Xinhua News Agency, The Wall Street Journal on the 25th cited U.S. officials that Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi have been temporarily removed from the U.S. and Israel’s targeted list.

The report said, “As Trump opens the door for high-level negotiations to end the war, Iranian Speaker Kalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi have been removed from the target list for 4 to 5 days.”

Recently, the U.S. has repeatedly indicated willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran to end the war, implying that targets for dialogue include Kalibaf. Kalibaf denies engaging in talks with the U.S. The Foreign Minister stated that Iran has no dialogue or negotiations with the U.S.

Early on the 26th local time, the chairman of Iran’s Islamic Parliament Civil Committee said, “We are seeking legislation that can legally safeguard Iran’s sovereignty, control, and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, while generating revenue through transit fees.”

The draft law has been prepared but has not yet reached the full proposal stage. It will be submitted next week to the parliamentary research center for refinement with legal team involvement, then presented and followed up after parliamentary sessions. Under this law, Iran would impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Early on the 26th, Iraqi militia group “Islamic Resistance Organization” issued a statement saying that in the past 24 hours, they launched 23 drone attacks against U.S. units in Iraq and surrounding areas. Since February 28, the group claims to have carried out 577 attacks on U.S. targets.

Wall Street Issues Warnings

Currently, global markets continue to be affected by the U.S.-Israel and Iran conflicts. Wall Street analysts warn that rising oil prices driven by Middle East tensions threaten economic growth, increasing the risk of a U.S. recession.

Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY-Parthenon, stated in a report, “Downside risks have significantly increased. In this context, we currently estimate a 40% probability of a U.S. recession.” He emphasized that if the Middle East conflict persists longer or worsens, this probability could quickly rise.

The economist pointed out that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and increasing risks to oil production suggest that inflationary pressures will be more persistent, not just short-term energy price spikes. Daco said, “If the war escalates, with oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel and other key commodities rising, financial conditions tightening, U.S. inflation could reach around 5%, and real GDP growth could decline by more than 1 percentage point, significantly increasing recession risks.”

He also noted that AI-driven investments and private credit are vulnerable, as “liquidity pressures could turn into solvency challenges.”

Other Wall Street firms are also raising recession expectations, partly due to Iran war and inflation risks. Moody’s currently estimates a 48.6% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, while Goldman Sachs has increased this expectation to 30%.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius noted that upward revisions to oil and gas prices could raise global inflation by about 1% and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4%.

He wrote, “While the impact of energy on U.S. growth may be modest, it coincides with tightening financial conditions and waning fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year.” He added, “Therefore, we now expect growth below trend, higher unemployment, and have slightly increased the probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 30%.”

Meanwhile, bettors on the Polymarket platform have increased their probability of a U.S. recession before the end of 2026 from 23% (before the Iran war outbreak on February 27) to 35% this Wednesday.

Data shows that concerns over soaring oil and natural gas prices fueling short-term inflation are rapidly rising. Currently, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year exceeds expectations of rate cuts; the European Central Bank and Bank of England are also forecasted to raise rates multiple times, possibly starting as early as next month.

The shift in expectations in European markets is particularly dramatic. The day before the outbreak of the conflict, UK interest rate futures pointed to easing by 50 basis points (two rate cuts) by year-end. However, within just a few weeks, this shifted to pricing in nearly 75 basis points of tightening (three rate hikes), a swing of 125 basis points, which is rare. Meanwhile, eurozone interest rate futures shifted from signaling a steady 2% key policy rate to pricing in two rate hikes.