Bernstein Downgrades Qualcomm Stock (QCOM) to Hold, Warns ‘Things Could Get Worse before They Get Better’

FomoAnxiety · 2026-03-26T15:14:21+00:00

Bernstein downgraded Qualcomm’s rating to Hold, lowering its price target due to concerns about rising memory costs affecting smartphones and lost business from Apple. Analyst Stacy Rasgon notes challenges ahead, predicting declining smartphone shipments and suggesting current market estimates may be overly optimistic.

FomoAnxiety

2026-03-26 15:14:21

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On Thursday, Bernstein downgraded its rating for chipmaker Qualcomm QCOM +1.14% ▲ to Hold from Buy and slashed the price target to $140 from $175, citing concerns about the impact of higher memory prices on smartphones, a key end market for the company, and loss of business from Apple AAPL +1.50% ▲ .

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“We feel a bit bad for the company; they appear to be doing everything right, but are living in a bad neighborhood at the moment, and we suspect things get worse before they get better,” said Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon.

Top Bernstein Analyst Moves to the Sidelines on Qualcomm Stock

Rasgon expects challenges in the memory market to have a “likely deleterious effect” on smartphone shipments, with the possibility of double-digit unit declines in 2026. He added that a surge in mobile DRAM and NAND costs is expected to hit smartphone builds.

The 5-star analyst argues that the Street’s estimates seem too high, given weakness in the smartphone market and partly due to the sell-side’s “mis-modeling” of the impact of the loss of business from Apple as the iPhone maker moves to in-house modems. Rasgon contends that the impact of the loss of Apple business is not fully reflected in market expectations, with the shift expected to accelerate into the year-end.

Additionally, Rasgon thinks potential tailwinds, such as the $20 billion share buyback and a data center-focused event, are perhaps not enough to offset the ongoing headwinds amid a weak smartphone market and other possible headwinds, such as the expiration of the Apple license agreement in a year and Samsung’s SSNLF +54.05% ▲ share dynamics.

While QCOM stock’s valuation is very cheap, Rasgon believes it doesn’t provide much support, as investors can buy “actual AI winners” trading at a valuation below 15x based on “realistic” estimates.

Is QCOM a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Given the ongoing challenges, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Qualcomm stock, based on 12 Holds, nine Buys, and three Sells. The average QCOM stock price target of $157.86 indicates about 20% upside potential.

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