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[US Stock Market] Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall back; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow drops 75 points, oil rises 4% (updating)
U.S. President Trump recently extended the deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz to Iran by five days. With only 48 hours remaining, the two countries still have not reached an agreement at the negotiation table. Trump posted on social platform Truth Social, saying Iran’s negotiation representatives are unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “plead” with the U.S. to reach an agreement, which is understandable. However, they publicly state they are only considering the U.S. proposal. He bluntly said this is a big mistake and urged Iran to take it seriously as soon as possible, or it will be too late with dire consequences!
In a subsequent interview, he said the Iran issue will be resolved soon, not too long from now, and energy prices will fall back, possibly even to lower levels. He is unsure whether they are willing to reach an agreement with Iran now, noting they should have done so four weeks ago and have missed that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. has thoroughly destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of their missiles and missile launchers. He claimed Iran should have used nuclear weapons against Israel, other regional countries, and the U.S.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted sources saying Iran officially responded on Wednesday (25th) to the U.S. ceasefire proposal containing 15 points, and is awaiting the other side’s reply. Iran stated that enemy aggression and terrorist acts must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be implemented on all fronts, targeting all resistance organizations involved, across the entire region.
Egypt confirmed participation in U.S.-Iran mediation. Foreign Minister Abdelatty said Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in transmitting messages between the U.S. and Iran and is involved in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate regional tensions.
Markets are worried about renewed Middle East conflict, with international oil prices rebounding. NY crude futures are at $93.02, up 3%, Brent crude futures at $106.7, up 4.4%. Gold prices, after rising for two consecutive days, have recently fallen back, with spot gold down 1% at $4,462.
U.S. stocks opened on Thursday with mixed performance: Dow up 58 points, at 46,487; S&P down 26 points, at 6,565; Nasdaq down 145 points, or 0.6%, at 21,784.
Schroders commented that the development of the Iran conflict remains uncertain, making the outlook for the economy and financial markets unclear: if oil prices are above $120 per barrel or below $90, the global economy will look very different. Compared to February, the probabilities of these two extreme scenarios have increased, while the “economic stability” scenario, which was more moderate and dovish, has seen its likelihood decrease accordingly.
The firm noted that, given inflationary pressures from oil price shocks, the probability of an “overheating” economy scenario has increased; however, this assessment remains lower than market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the potential for “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.
Market Trends:
【23:00】Trump: Iran issue will be resolved soon, energy prices will fall back; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 75 points, oil prices rise 4%
【21:30】Trump urges Iran negotiators to take negotiations seriously; Egypt confirms mediation participation; Dow down 218 points, oil up 4%
【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%; oil up 4%, gold latest retreat after two days of gains
【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241
【14:27】Oil rises 2%, NY crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%; gold, after two days of gains, falls again, NY gold down 3% at $4,446, spot gold down 1.7% at $4,429
【14:19】【Private Equity】Goldman Sachs former CEO warns of hidden “fire” risk in private markets; unsold assets may trigger large impairments
【13:39】【US Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysis: current rebound driven by ceasefire hopes, US-Iran conflict unlikely to end short-term, oil prices expected to rise again
【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock CEO warns investors underestimate Iran war risk; even if “war ends tomorrow,” oil could surge to $150
【11:43】【AI + Meta】Massive AI investments; Meta launches new round of layoffs involving hundreds
【10:47】【Dollar Trend】Morgan Stanley: Rising dollar may be a “trap for long positions”; market underestimates adverse impact of Iran conflict on US economy; expects two rate cuts this year
【10:15】【US Rate Cuts】Fed Governor Mural raises rate hike expectations by 0.5 percentage points, citing no relation to oil or Iran factors
【09:28】【Gold Trend】Gold continues to recover after two days of gains, remains above $4,500
【08:47】【Oil Trend】US assesses impact of extreme scenario where oil hits $200; White House denies
【08:29】【Iran Crisis】Citrini founder: Fed will “ignore” oil shocks, do not give up on rate cut expectations; AI “Doomsday Report” in February unsettled markets
【08:04】【Xi-Trump Meeting】White House announces Trump’s visit to China on May 14-15; Xi Jinping to visit Washington later this year
【07:27】【Iran Crisis】No signs Iran will “send big gift”; White House Leavitt: if Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will escalate strikes (ongoing updates)
$1 or less for March 25 U.S. stock market overview====
Wednesday: Dow up 305 points; Iran claims to shoot down U.S. F-18; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May
White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced Wednesday that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15; market expects this schedule indicates the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end by mid-May. U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday.
See the market close:
Key stocks: Tesla released a video of Optimus, revealing details about the robot’s development environment, reduction gear, dexterous hands, etc. Tesla claims Optimus will revolutionize labor and manufacturing economies. Elon Musk said Optimus 3 is expected to start production this summer, with mass production possible by 2027. Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.8%.
Amazon and Nvidia stocks gained 2%. UK chip design company ARM announced its own chips, boosting ADR stocks by 16.4%.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Wednesday that its air defense forces shot down a U.S. F-18 fighter jet in southeastern airspace, which then crashed into the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s Fars News Agency quoted sources saying Iran will refuse the U.S. ceasefire proposal and continue attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries. They criticized Trump’s indirect negotiation approach as illogical and unfeasible at this stage. Iran focuses on achieving its goals; only when these are met can the war end, not through a ceasefire. This news caused oil prices to fall slightly, with NY crude dropping up to 6.38%, closing at $90.32, down 2.2%; Brent crude once plunged 7% to $97.15, closing at $102.22, down 2.2%.
Iran’s Press TV cited the Atomic Energy Organization reporting that the Bushir nuclear power plant was attacked again Tuesday night at 9 p.m. local time. The plant was previously attacked in mid-March; the IAEA said the reactor was not damaged.
Iran reiterated that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. Marine Traffic data shows nine ships have transited the strait since Monday (23rd).
Spot gold rose up to 2.83%, at $4,602.34; Bitcoin briefly up 2.79% to $72,013.
Memory chip stocks tumbled against the trend: Micron (MU) down 3.4%, Sandisk (SNDK) down 3.5%. The decline was mainly due to South Korea’s SK Hynix planning to list in the U.S.
Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted confidential filings to the SEC, planning to issue ADRs within the year, with a potential raise of up to $10 billion. A company spokesperson said that measures to increase shareholder value, including ADR issuance, are under review but no final decision has been made.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.
Market Trends:
【22:40】Rumors: Iran collecting “toll” from ships passing through Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 3%
【21:30】Pakistan ready to host US-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil up 4%
【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Possible signs of easing? Trump reportedly asking for huge protection fee: $2.5 trillion to end war
【16:00】【Iran Crisis】US sets April 9 as “end of war” date; Iran continues denial
【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points, at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258
【14:00】Oil rebounds: NY crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken: NY gold down 0.9% at $4,400, spot gold at $4,357
【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold prices expected to fluctuate with Middle East conflict; maintains year-end target of $6,250
【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, with a 17.5% minimum return, competing for enterprise AI market
【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43
【12:34】【Gold Trend】Gold continues to decline after nine consecutive drops; Hong Kong gold price falls below HKD 40,000 per tael
【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; cut may continue into April
【11:51】【Gold Trend】Gold enters bear market, down over 20% from high; Morgan Stanley: funds flowing from safe-haven assets to stocks, positive for US equities
【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Minister of State Shoei orders assessment of oil supply chain amid crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consulting markets on possible intervention in crude futures
【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may worsen wealth inequality; investors should hedge risks through stock holdings
【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states dependence on Microsoft is a risk in investor documents; what other risks exist?
【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed official Daly: US economy faces at least two scenarios; Fed needs flexibility to respond to risks
【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual WWDC scheduled for June 8, expected to unveil new AI features
【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK’s “Dragon” destroyer arrives in Mediterranean (ongoing updates)
$1 or less for March 23 U.S. stock market overview====
Monday: Trump’s comments questioned; Dow gains halved to 631 points; oil down 10%
U.S. President Trump claimed negotiations with Iran have paused attacks on power plants, boosting oil and stocks. The Dow once rose 1,134 points, reaching 46,712; S&P up 2.2%; Nasdaq up 2.5%. The gains narrowed at close: Dow up 631 points at 46,208; S&P up 1.1%; Nasdaq up 1.4%.
See the market close:
The oil price fell by 14.1% intraday, closing down 10% at $88.13; Brent crude closed at $100.5. Gold fell 7% at one point to $4,099.18, closing down 1.9% at $4,407.18.
Macquarie’s FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said, “We remain cautious about early reports of ‘breakthroughs’ and tweets,” believing the war is unlikely to last beyond April, as Iran’s threat may weaken, but large-scale military action probably won’t end this week.
Trump posted on Truth Social that negotiations went smoothly over the past two days, with talks ongoing, and instructed the U.S. military to pause all attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on successful meetings and discussions.
He later said the two sides had reached multiple agreements and discussed Iran’s leadership candidates, claiming Iran has agreed to give up nuclear weapons. However, he also warned that if talks break down, bombing will continue.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later quoted sources saying the U.S. and Iran have not engaged in negotiations and are not currently talking. They also indicated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict status. Another agency, Mehr, cited Iran’s Foreign Ministry saying Trump’s comments aim to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that some initiatives to ease tensions exist, but Iran’s stance is that the U.S. should be the dialogue partner, as Iran did not start the war.
Trump further responded, saying negotiations took place on the evening of Sunday (22nd), emphasizing Iran’s urgent desire for an agreement, and expressing confusion over why Iranian media refutes his statements.
T. Rowe Price noted that after Iran was attacked, gold initially surged as a safe haven, but the rally was short-lived as markets quickly reinterpreted the event as a geopolitical risk. Investors did not see it as a sustained geopolitical shock but rather as inflation driven by energy prices. This shift pushed real yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and weakened gold’s outlook.
Gold had already gained significantly before the event, limiting further safe-haven inflows. The outlook remains influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, key factors include real yields, central bank policies, energy prices, and the dollar. The firm still views gold as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks and policy uncertainty support gold prices, even if short-term prices may remain volatile.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.
Market Trends:
【22:15】Trump: If US-Iran talks break down, bombing will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points; oil down 10%
【21:30】Trump delays final ultimatum by 5 days, says negotiations ongoing; Dow up 744 points; oil down 8%
【20:10】Iran denies negotiations; Dow futures narrow gains; oil down 5%
【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks, final ultimatum delayed 5 days; Dow futures up 1,207 points; Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil plunges 10%
【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points, at 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points, at 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7%, at 23,934
【14:13】Oil rebounds: NY crude at $98.97, up 0.8%; Brent at $112.85, up 0.6%
【14:13】【Gold Trend】Spot gold drops below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; HK gold price drops HKD 1,000 per tael, back to high of HKD 40,000
【13:25】【Oil Market】Goldman warns of “largest supply shock in history,” raises 2026 Brent forecast to $85
【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA chief: Over 40 Middle East energy assets “severely damaged”; conflict impact akin to two oil crises in the 1970s plus 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis
【11:40】【Yen Trend】Yen/ HKD at 4.9; Japanese officials reiterate “export tactics”: ready to take all necessary measures to respond to exchange rate fluctuations
【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Korean and Japanese markets face “Black Monday”; Korean stocks fall 5%; sixth “Sidecar” mechanism activated this year; Nikkei drops over 2,600 points
【10:56】【AI + Chips】Elon Musk: Terafab project to land in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX jointly operate
【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final ultimatum countdown: Trump and Iran threaten to attack civilian infrastructure; oil fluctuates (ongoing updates)
【07:30】【Market Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict, Fed officials’ comments; US March manufacturing PMI due Tuesday
【07:30】Iran conflict intensifies; Trump says “I don’t want a ceasefire”; energy prices volatile; Dow drops over 600 points at one point; 10-year Treasury yield hits six-month high; market expects 40% chance of rate hike in September. Dow down 443 points at 45,577; S&P down 1.51%; Nasdaq down 2.01%.
See the market close:
U.S. stock market activity last week; see details: Market close | Trump says no to ceasefire; Dow drops 443 points; 10-year Treasury yield hits six-month high; 40% chance of rate hike in September