Haitong Futures: Absolute fuel prices fluctuate around geopolitical developments; short-term focus on the outcome of the new round of US-Iran negotiations

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-26T15:45:20+00:00

Fuel oil fluctuated upward, reaching a new high since the second half of 2025, still influenced by escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions. According to the latest developments, prior to the third round of negotiations on February 26, a hardline US demand regarding the Iran nuclear deal was disclosed, namely that the Trump administration要求伊朗在未来任何核协议中接受协议“无限期有效”，不得设定到期条款. The US-Iran negotiations' disagreements triggered geopolitical market tensions, causing fuel oil to open sharply higher. However, in intraday trading, the trend was volatile, and market participants remained cautious about pushing fuel oil higher, partly due to uncertainty over the negotiation outcomes and concerns about slowing demand amid increased supply. On the supply side, exports from Russia and Iraq remain high; on the demand side, power generation and feedstock demand are subdued. In the short term, fuel oil prices will be driven by geopolitical developments, with close attention to the final negotiation results. If negotiations fail, FU is likely to continue its strong trend. If geopolitical tensions ease, it may be a good opportunity to short fuel oil at higher levels.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-26 15:45:20

Fuel oil prices are oscillating upward, reaching their highest since late 2025, still influenced by escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions. According to the latest developments, prior to the third round of negotiations on February 26, a hardline demand from the US side regarding the Iran nuclear deal was disclosed: the Trump administration要求伊朗在未来任何核协议中接受“无限期有效”的条款，不能设定到期条款。 Disagreements between the US and Iran have heightened geopolitical market tensions, causing fuel oil to open sharply higher. However, the intraday performance has been volatile, with cautiousness among investors about pushing prices higher. Besides waiting for the negotiation results, there are concerns about the current supply increase and slowing demand. On the supply side, exports from Russia and Iraq remain high; on the demand side, power generation and feedstock needs are subdued. In the short term, fuel oil prices will be driven by geopolitical developments, with attention on the final negotiation outcomes. If negotiations fail, FU is likely to continue its strong trend. If geopolitical tensions ease, it could be a good opportunity to sell high and buy low in fuel oil. (Haitong Futures)

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