Haitong Futures: Prices in the four major segments of the industrial chain are weakly stable; PS trading is light, with continuous intraday decline

How this wave of polysilicon will end remains to be seen. Will it become the next thermal coal? Only time will tell. After all, we are a manufacturing-based country, and excessive “virtualization” at the expense of real industry will inevitably lead to overcorrection. If production cuts are not implemented, companies will sell off inventory at lower prices, and as we mentioned earlier, prices will follow suit. The price range is still highly likely to decline to 40,000–45,000 yuan per ton.

Although leading companies are implementing production cuts—Tongwei has basically halted production, and GCL has reduced output, with February production expected to drop to 85,000 tons, significantly tightening supply—the current industry-wide inventory has already exceeded 510,000 tons and continues to rise, creating enormous inventory pressure. On the demand side, downstream wafer prices continue to weaken, buyers are holding back, and actual transactions are few. The market overall shows a “weak supply and demand” situation with total volume remaining roughly stable, resulting in a stalemate.

Looking ahead, although supported by production cuts and industry conference expectations, large firms are more confident in maintaining prices, with leading companies tentatively raising prices above 60 yuan/kg. However, under the pressure of low spot prices (48–50 yuan/kg) and weak downstream demand, the motivation to increase polysilicon prices in February is limited. In the context of supply and demand imbalance, it will be difficult for the polysilicon segment to sustain price increases. Market rumors indicate that top companies are lowering quotes, with spot and futures prices dropping to as low as 46 yuan/kg.

Although Tongwei’s acquisition has temporarily provided some emotional support for price stabilization, overall, polysilicon prices are expected to remain “weak and steady” in the near term. (Haitong Futures)